Oil Prices Decline despite the Drop in Oil Stockpiles

The Prices of crude oil declined during most of the week so far. The latest EIA update shows the oil stockpiles decreased in the U.S during last week. The petroleum and oil weekly update by Energy Information Administration shows an analysis on the effect of Hurricane Sandy on the oil market: the main problems revolve around the damage done to the New York Area pipelines and terminals that caused stress on the supply chain between wholesale and retail segments. During last week U.S stockpiles fell: the total U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles declined by 4.7 million bl; conversely, crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.1 million bl. The oil production rose again last week while imports and refinery input fell.

Here is a weekly update for the week ending on November 9th 2012 of the U.S oil and petroleum market:

Crude Oil Stockpiles

For the week ending on November 9th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles declined by 4.7 million barrels and reached 1,789.2 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are also higher than the quota as of last year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 52.5 million barrels above oil stockpiles levels of the parallel week in 2011.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil increased by 1.09 million barrels and reached 1,070.9 million barrels.

The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline slipped by 0.22% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 201.93 million barrels.

In the chart below are the changes of petroleum and oil stockpiles and WTI crude oil price in past years. During the last couple of years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles was -0.186. This correlation suggests, assuming all things equal, oil prices may increase during next week.

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks Crude Oil and WTI spot oil price 2012 November 15

Petroleum production refinery inputs and imports (for the week of November 9th)

During last week, imports rose and refinery inputs fell while production rose.

The four week average of U.S. production (million of barrels a day) for the week of November 9th rose to 6.666; it is also 0.4% above the average production at the same week in 2011.

The crude oil refinery inputs (4 week average) decreased to 14.733 (million b/d), a 0.4% drop compared with the week of 2/11/2012 was also 1% higher than the same week last year.

Crude oil imports also decreased to 8.157 (for 4 week average) compared with the week of 2/11/2012; they were also 8.1% below the average during the same week last year.

Below is a detailed review of the information listed above (for the week of November 9th):

Crude Oil Production and Imports Crude Oil Refinery Inputs 2012 November 15

Propane Stocks

Propane stocks declined by 437 thousand barrels and reached 73,183 thousand barrels.

Crude Oil, Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the Week Ending on November 9th

The average price of U.S gasoline retail declined by 4 cents to $3.45/g, which is only $0.01/g higher than the price during the same week in 2011.

The national average Diesel price slipped by three cents as it reached $3.98/g; this price is also $0.01/g lower than last year’s average price at same time.

A detailed analysis of oil prices for the week ending on November 9th is herein.

For further reading: