Oil Prices Fall As Oil Stockpiles and Production Rise

The Prices of crude oil continue to fall as the recent EIA report shows a gain in oil stockpiles and an ongoing rise in oil production in the U.S. According to the recent petroleum and oil weekly report published by the Energy Information Administration, there is an update about the growth in U.S propane production. During last week there was a rise in the U.S stockpiles: the total U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles increased by 3.9 million bl; further, crude oil stockpiles also rose by 5.9 million bl. Last week, there was an increase in production, imports and refinery inputs. Finally, the prices of gasoline in the U.S decreased again during last week. Currently, the price of oil is falling.  

Here is a weekly update for the week ending on October 19th 2012 of the U.S oil and petroleum market:

Crude Oil Stockpiles

For the week ending on October 19th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles changed direction and rose by 3.9 million barrels and reached 1,793 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are also higher than the quota as of last year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 34.4 million barrels above oil stockpiles levels of the same week in 2011.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil also increased by 5.9 million barrels and reached 1,070.1 million barrels.

The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline also rose by 0.73% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 198.6 million barrels.

In the chart below are the developments of petroleum and oil stockpiles and WTI crude oil price between the years 2008 and 2012. During the last couple of years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles was -0.183. This relation suggests, assuming all things equal, oil prices may further fall during the upcoming week.

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks Crude Oil and WTI spot oil price 2012 October 24

Petroleum production refinery inputs and imports (for the week of October 19th)

During last week, production, refinery inputs and imports increased.

The four week average of U.S. production (million of barrels a day) for the week of October 19th rose to 6.584; it is also 12.3% above the average production at the same week in 2011.

The crude oil refinery inputs (4 week average) increased to 14.804 (million b/d), a 0.3% gain compared with the week of 12/10/2012 was also 0.9% higher than the same week last year.

Crude oil imports also increased to 8.374 (for 4 week average) compared with the week of 12/10/2012; they were still 4.5% below the average during the same week last year.

Below is a detailed review of the information listed above (for the week of October 19th):

Crude Oil Production and Imports Crude Oil Refinery Inputs 2012 October 24

Propane Stocks

Propane stocks decreased by 153 thousand barrels and reached 74,475 thousand barrels.

Crude Oil, Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the Week Ending on October 19th

The average price of U.S gasoline retail decreased by 13 cents to $3.69/g, which is still $0.23/g higher than the price during the same week in 2011.

The national average Diesel price rose by three cents as it reached $4.12/g; this price is also $0.29/g higher than last year’s average price at same time.

A detailed analysis of oil prices for the week ending on October 19th is herein.

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