Crude oil prices bounced back after they had declined in the previous three business days. Currently, crude oil prices (WTI) are traded sharply up following the gains in the US stock markets. Today, the U.S. consumer confidence report will be published, and the Euro Area monetary developments for August.
Here’s a short analysis of the crude oil market for today, September 27th:
Crude Oil Prices –September
On Monday, September 26th crude oil price (WTI) slightly rose by 0.83% to $80.24/b; Brent oil price also inclined by 0.58% to $107.26/b; during September WTI spot oil fell by 9.65%; Brent oil price decreased by 7.92%.
The chart below shows the prices development of WTI spot oil and Brent oil in the past three months – July up to September.
Premium of Brent over WTI – September Update
The premium of Brent oil over WTI spot oil slightly declined on Monday to $27.02. During September, this premium declined by 2.35%.
On Today’s Agenda:
Monetary Developments in the Euro Area: This report will show the recent changes in Euro Area’s M3, M1 and private sector loans. In the previous July report, the M1 and private loans dropped; if in August this trend will continue, it could serve as another indicator of a slowdown in economic activity in Europe and may affect ECB’s upcoming interest rate decision (see here the last report);
U.S. Consumer Confidence: in the previous report, the consumer confidence index declined during August compared with July’s index. The current expectations are that this index may continue to drop in the upcoming report and thus could affect traders in Forex and commodities markets.
Forex Market and Crude Oil Prices – September
The Euro to US dollar exchange rate slightly inclined on Monday by 0.24%; during September the Euro/USD completed a 5.82% decrease. If US dollar will continue to depreciate against the Euro, CAD AUD, they help crude oil prices to trade up.
U.S. Stock Market / Crude Oil Prices – September
The S&P500 index sharply inclined on Monday by 2.33%. During September, the S&P500 index decreased by 4.59%. During September, there is a strong positive correlation between crude oil prices and S&P500 index (e.g. for WTI it was 0.649 and for Brent oil it was 0.567). If the US stock markets will continue their comeback, they may further affect crude oil prices to increase as well.
Current Crude Oil Prices
Major crude oil prices are currently traded with mixed trend in the European market:
The Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (October 2011 delivery) is traded at $82.15/ barrel, a $1.91/b increase or 2.38%, as of 11:47*.
The Dated Brent spot oil price declines by $0.08/b to $107.19/ barrel as of 11:47*.
Thus, the current premium of Brent over WTI is at $25.04/b.
Crude Oil Prices Outlook and Analysis:
Crude oil prices start to gain back some of the losses they had endured in the recent turbulent days. Currently, crude oil prices (WTI) are continuing their slow recovery, and they are gaining power from the gains in the US stock markets. The cautious optimism vis-à-vis a European bailout plan may keep fueling the market gains during the day. I speculate that WTI oil price will remain around $80-$85 and Brent oil price around $105-$110 during the rest of September.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today (all times GMT):
09:00 – Monetary Developments in the Euro Area
15:00 – US Consumer Confidence
13:30 –Report on U.S. Core Durable Goods
15:30 – EIA report on crude oil stockpiles
22:00 – Bernanke Speaks
For further reading:
Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.