Crude oil price outlook – 17 January

After last week’s bullish behavior of crude oil price, as the WIT spot price increased by 2.6% and Brent spot by 3.2%, there is an ongoing speculation around crude oil price to continue rising this week and reaching the 100$ mark.

According to crude oil price reaching 100$/b isn’t so far fetch. Reuters quotes Iran, Venezuela and Libya that they don’t mind having oil price at the 100$ mark.

Here are three news items that will probably tilt crude oil price to incline:

The trans Alaska pipeline: after the pipeline, which carries nearly 11% of the U.S. crude oil production, shutdown last week, there are plans to restore it later on today according to Bloomberg if there won’t be any further impediments. If this is so, then it could reduce the pressures for petroleum price to increase in the U.S.

BP’s deal with OAO Rosneft: by making a stock swap at 7.8 billion USD,  BP will own 10.8% of OAO Rosneft’s shares which will represent nearly 1.6 billion barrels of proven reserves (for the complete story). This might restore some confidence in BP, but remains to be seen…

The weather: The recent snow in the Northeast of the U.S. from last week has subsided, however it’s still cold, e.g. in New York temperatures predicted to be around 23 f (-5 c) on Monday. As the temperatures will continue to decrease, the demand for heating will increase, in the U.S. this include, among other, propane which its stocks are falling sharply for the past several weeks.

Nymex crude oil price (WTI) is currently trading as of 8.43 AM GMT at 91.11 USD per barrel, a decrease of -0.47% or -0.43$/b.

Crude oil price (Dated Brent spot) is at 97.68 USD/barrel a –0.44 USD/ barrel decrease or -0.45% as of 8.55 AM.

If I would to speculate, based on the news above, crude oil price WTI and Brent. despite their fall today, will probably moderately incline as the week will progress, not including any unpredictable newsbreak that could affect the energy market.

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