Oil Prices Resume Their Rally As Oil Stockpiles Fall

The Prices of crude oil resumed its rally yesterday perhaps on account of ongoing tensions in the Middle East and despite the recent EIA report in which the oil production in the U.S continued to increase. According to the latest petroleum and oil weekly report published by the Energy Information Administration, there is an analysis about the tightening of the heating oil market.  During the previous week there was a decrease in the U.S stockpiles: the total U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles fell by 4.3 million bl; on the other hand, crude oil stockpiles also increased by 1.6 million bl. Last week, there was a rise in refinery inputs and production but a drop in imports. Finally, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the U.S increased during last week. Currently, the price of oil is rising.  

Here is a weekly update for the week ending on October 5th 2012 of the U.S oil and petroleum market:

Crude Oil Stockpiles

For the week ending on October 5th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles declined again by 4.3 million barrels and reached 1,792 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are higher than the quota as of last year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 22.9 million barrels above oil stockpiles levels of the parallel week during 2011.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil increased by 1.6 million barrels and reached 1,061.3 million barrels.

The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline slightly decreased by 0.27% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 195.4 million barrels.

The chart below shows the changes of petroleum and oil stockpiles and WTI crude oil price between the years 2008 and 2012. During the last couple of years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles was -0.182. This relation suggests, assuming all things equal, that oil prices may continue to increase during next week.

Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks Crude Oil and WTI spot oil price 2012 October 11

Petroleum production refinery inputs and imports (for the week of October 5th)

During last week, refinery inputs and production rose while imports fell.

The four week average of U.S. production (million of barrels a day) for the week of October 5th increased to 6.476; it is also 11.8% above the average production at the same week in 2011.

The crude oil refinery inputs (4 week average) also increased to 14.784 (million b/d), a 0.7% gain compared with the week of 28/9/2012 but were still 1.6% lower than the same week last year.

Crude oil imports fell to 8.443 (for 4 week average) compared with the week of 28/9/2012; they were also 5.8% below the average during the same week last year.

Below is a detailed review of the information listed above (for the week of October 5th):

Crude Oil Production and Imports Crude Oil Refinery Inputs 2012 October 11

Propane Stocks

Propane stocks increased by 312 thousand barrels and reached 75,896 thousand barrels.

Crude Oil, Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the Week Ending on October 5th

The average U.S gasoline retail price increased by 5 cents to $3.85 /g, which is also $0.43/g higher than the price during the same week in 2011.

The national average Diesel price also rose by a penny and a half as it reached $4.09/g; this price is also $0.37/g higher than last year’s average price at same time.

A detailed analysis of oil prices for the week ending on October 5th is herein.

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