Oil Prices – Weekly Recap December 31- January 4

Crude oil prices resumed their upward trend following the New Year holiday. The U.S stockpiles changed direction and decreased according to the recent EIA report. The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed again to a range between $18 and $19 during last week. Brent rose by 0.62% during the week; WTI oil, by 2.52%. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI reached $18.22/b on Friday.

Here is a short analysis for the rate changes in oil prices (Brent and WTI) between December 31st and January 4th and a summary of the recent EIA review on petroleum and oil stockpiles:

Oil Market – Weekly Summary

table oil prices - December 31 January 4 2013NYMEX Oil Future (WTI) rose during last week by 2.52%; its weekly average rate also increased by 2.61% to $92.35 per barrel, compared with last week’s $88.69 per barrel. The average daily percent change of oil price (WTI) was 0.49%.

NYMEX Oil Future (short term delivery) reached $93.09/b by Friday, January 4th.

Europe Brent oil also rallied during the week by 0.62%, and the average price increased by 1.31% compared with previous week’s average.

The difference between Brent and WTI remained at the range between $18 and $19 during the week; its average premium reached $19.19; it finished the week at $18.22 – the lowest level since September 2012.

Oil Charts

In the following charts (for the week ending on December 28th) are the daily changes in NYMEX WTI future (short term delivery) and Brent oil:

The first chart shows the developments of WTI and Brent oil during last week: WTI and Brent oil had a moderate upward rise during the week.

oil WTI BRENT chart - December 31 January 4 2013In the second chart are the daily percent changes (i.e. changes around the trend) of oil prices (WTI and Brent):

oil chart WTI Brent - percent change December 31 January 4 2013Oil Stockpiles –Review:

For the week ending on December 28th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles changed direction and declined by 10 million barrels and reached 1,784.4 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are also higher than the quota from year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 44.1 million barrels above oil stockpiles for the parallel week in 2011.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil fell by 111 million barrels and reached 1,054.0 million barrels. The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline rose by 1.15% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 225.6 million barrels.

The chart below presents the developments of petroleum and oil stockpiles and price of oil in recent years. During recent years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles reached -0.19. This mid-weak correlation postulates, assuming all things being equal, the prices of oil may rise during next week.

u.s. ending stocks oil  2013 4 January

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