Oil Prices – Weekly Recap February 4-8

Crude oil price changed direction and fell during last week. The U.S stockpiles slightly rose according to the recent EIA report. The difference between Brent and WTI has widened to a range between $19 and $23 during last week. Brent increased by 1.83% during the week; WTI oil declined by 2.1%. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI reached $23.18/b on Friday.

Here is a short analysis for the rate shifts in oil prices (Brent and WTI) between February 4th and February 8th and a summary of the recent EIA review on petroleum and oil stockpiles:

Oil Market – Weekly Summary

table oil prices - February 4-8 2013NYMEX Oil Future (WTI) declined during last week by 2.1%; its weekly average rate also decreased by 1.28% to $97.44 per barrel, compared with last week’s $96.2 per barrel. The average daily percent change of oil price (WTI) was -0.42%.

NYMEX Oil Future (short term delivery) reached $95.72/b by Friday, February 8th.

Europe Brent oil, on the other hand, increased during the week by 1.83%, and the average price rose by 1.73% compared with last week’s average.

The gap between Brent and WTI was at the range between $19 and $23 during the week; its average premium reached $20.8; it finished the week at $23.18.

Oil Charts

In the following charts (for the week ending on February 8th) are the daily shifts in NYMEX WTI future (short term delivery) and Brent oil:

The first chart shows the changes of WTI and Brent oil during last week: WTI oil fell while Brent oil rallied during the week.

oil WTI BRENT chart - February 4-8 2013In the second chart are the daily percent shifts (i.e. changes around the trend) of oil prices (WTI and Brent):

 

oil chart WTI Brent - percent change February 4-8 2013Oil Stockpiles –Review:

For the week ending on February 2nd, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles slightly increased by 0.4 million barrels and reached 1,799.1 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are still higher than the quota from year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 43.5 million barrels above oil stockpiles for the parallel week in 2012.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil also increased by 2.9 million barrels and reached 1,067.5 million barrels. The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline rose by 0.75% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 234.0 million barrels.

During recent years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles reached -0.20. This mid-weak correlation suggests, assuming all things being equal, the rates of oil may decrease next week.

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