Oil Prices – Weekly Recap January 14-18

Crude oil price resumed its upward trend during last week. The U.S stockpiles rose again according to the latest EIA report. The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed again to a range between $15 and $17 during last week. Brent inched down by 0.03% during the week; WTI oil increased by 2.14%. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI reached $15.05/b on Friday.

Here is a short analysis for the rate developments in oil prices (Brent and WTI) between January 14th and January 18th and a summary of the latest EIA review on petroleum and oil stockpiles:

Oil Market – Weekly Summary

table oil prices - January 14-18  2013NYMEX Oil Future (WTI) rose during last week by 2.14%; its weekly averagerate also rose by 1.26% to $94.54 per barrel, compared with last week’s $93.37 per barrel. The average daily percent change of oil price (WTI) was 0.43%.

NYMEX Oil Future (short term delivery) reached $95.56/b by Friday, January 18th.

Europe Brent oil, on the other hand, inched down during the week by 0.03%, and the average price slipped by 0.65% compared with previous week’s average.

The difference between Brent and WTI remained at the range between $15 and $17 during the week; its average premium reached $16.26; it finished the week at $15.05 – the lowest number since July 2012.

Oil Charts

In the following charts (for the week ending on January 18th) are the daily changes in NYMEX WTI future (short term delivery) and Brent oil:

The first chart shows the changes of WTI and Brent oil during last week: WTI oil had an upward trend while Brent oil remained nearly flat during the week.

oil WTI BRENT chart - January 14-18  2013In the second chart are the daily percent changes (i.e. changes around the trend) of oil prices (WTI and Brent):

oil chart WTI Brent - percent change January 14-18  2013Oil Stockpiles –Review:

For the week ending on January 11th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles rose again by 3.7 million barrels and reached 1,799.1 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are also higher than the quota from year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 51.5 million barrels above oil stockpiles for the parallel week in 2012.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil slipped by 0.95 million barrels and reached 1,055.5 million barrels. The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline rose by 0.82% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 235 million barrels.

During recent years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles reached -0.20. This mid-weak correlation postulates, assuming all things being equal, the prices of oil may decline during next week.

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