Oil Prices – Weekly Recap January 7-11

Crude oil prices remained nearly unchanged during last week. The U.S stockpiles changed direction and rose according to the recent EIA report. The gap between Brent and WTI contacted again to a range between $17 and $19 during last week. Brent slipped by 0.6% during the week; WTI oil rose by 0.5%. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI reached $17.08/b on Friday.

Here is a short analysis for the rate changes in oil prices (Brent and WTI) between January 4th and January 11th and a summary of the latest EIA review on petroleum and oil stockpiles:

Oil Market – Weekly Summary

table oil prices - January 7-11  2013NYMEX Oil Future (WTI) increased during last week by 0.5%; its weekly average rate also rose by 1.1% to $93.37 per barrel, compared with last week’s $92.35 per barrel. The average daily percent change of oil price (WTI) was 0.1%.

NYMEX Oil Future (short term delivery) reached $93.56/b by Friday, January 11th.

Europe Brent oil, on the other hand, declined during the week by 0.6%, and the average price remained unchanged compared with previous week’s average.

The difference between Brent and WTI remained at the range between $17 and $19 during the week; its average premium reached $18.16; it finished the week at $17.08 – the lowest number since September 2012.

Oil Charts

In the following charts (for the week ending on January 4th) are the daily shifts in NYMEX WTI future (short term delivery) and Brent oil:

The first chart shows the changes of WTI and Brent oil during last week: WTI and Brent oil had an unclear trend during the week.

oil WTI BRENT chart - January 7-11 2013In the second chart are the daily percent shifts (i.e. changes around the trend) of oil prices (WTI and Brent):

oil chart WTI Brent - percent change January 7-11   2013Oil Stockpiles –Review:

For the week ending on January 4th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles changed direction and rose by 10.9 million barrels and reached 1,795.4 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are also higher than the quota from year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 45.7 million barrels above oil stockpiles for the parallel week in 2012.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil also rose by 1.3 million barrels and reached 1,056.2 million barrels. The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline rose by 3.28% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 233.1 million barrels.

The chart below shows the developments of petroleum and oil stockpiles and price of oil in recent years. During recent years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles reached -0.21. This mid-weak correlation postulates, assuming all things being equal, the prices of oil may rise during next week.

oil chart WTI Brent - percent change January 7-11   2013

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