Oil Prices Daily Outlook July 22

Crude oil prices finished yesterday with a mixed trend again as WTI spot oil rose and Brent oil slightly fell. Today, the core CPI of Canada will be published.

Here’s a short analysis and outlook of the crude oil market for today, July 22nd:

Crude oil prices – July 2011

On Thursday, July 21st crude oil price (WTI) rose by 0.78% to $98.91/b; during July WTI spot oil inclined by 3.79%.

Brent oil price on the other hand fell 0.25% to $117.65/b; during July Brent oil rose by 5.32%.

The chart below shows WTI spot oil and Brent oil price during May to July. It shows the changes in the trend of crude oil prices, and how the current state of these prices is “no trend” mode after they had risen very sharply at the beginning of July.

 

Crude spot oil prices 2011 Brent oil and WTI spot oil  2011 July 22

Premium of Brent oil over WTI spot oil

The premium of Brent oil over WTI spot oil started to fall in recent days as Brent oil declined while WTI spot oil price rose; on Thursday July 21st the premium reached $18.74/b – its lowest level since July 8th; during July this premium rose by 14.20%, mainly because Brent oil price outperformed WTI spot oil price during the first week of July.

Difference between Brent and WTI crude spot oil price 2011 July 22

US dollar / Crude oil prices – July update

Yesterday, Euro to US dollar exchange rate rose very sharply by 1.48%, this gain was probably related to the news of the Franco-German agreement on the Greece bailout. Furthermore, the Australian dollar to US dollar rose by 0.84% and US dollar to Canadian dollar fell by 0.44%. The fall of the US dollar might be related, in part, to the concerns over the debt ceiling talks (see here for further elaboration on the debt ceiling talks).

This means the US dollar depreciated against major currencies primarily vs. the Euro. These shifts coincide with slow rise of crude oil prices; if this trend will continue it may further push up crude oil prices.

Current crude oil prices

Major crude oil prices are currently traded up in the European markets:

The Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (August 2011 delivery) is traded at $99.49 / barrel, a $0.36/b increase or 0.36%, as of 09:48*.

The Dated Brent spot oil price inclines by $0.31/b to $117.95/ barrel as of 09:58*.

(* GMT)

Thus, the current premium of Brent over WTI is at $18.46/b.

 Crude oil price outlook and analysis:

Crude oil prices continue to slowly rise, but there is still no clear direction for crude oil prices and in the short term, they are likely to remain near $97-$100 for WTI spot oil and $117-$118 for Brent oil.  

 Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today (all times GMT):

Today

13.00 – Canadian Core CPI

[ratings]

 For further reading:

 

Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.   

2 comments for “Oil Prices Daily Outlook July 22

  1. yves
    July 23, 2011 at 7:51 am

    Normally, the International Energy Agency should stop now injecting in the market the 2 M barrels/day of crude oil. What influence on oil prices should we expect and when?

    Yves 7/23/2011

    • July 23, 2011 at 9:03 am

      Hi Yves,
      Thanks for the question. Its hard to see the effect on the oil price, and in any case there are additional factors to consider from the supply side, including the verbal pledge of Saudi Arabia to raise its quota; but all things being equal, I still think that this change in the IEA won’t cause a big stir up in the oil market and won’t drive the oil price much higher. Consider the following; before the IEA announced the release of 60 million bbl, back in June 23rd the price of WTI was $95/b; now it’s at $99.

      On the other hand, the demand for oil is expected to rise (seasonality effect) and the weakening of the US dollar; these factors are probably among the forces that pushed oil prices up during July, and may continue to do so in the near future.
      Lior

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