Weekly outlook for July 11-15

This upcoming week entails many news items, including (among others) the US and Canadian trade balance reports, Ben Bernanke to testify, the Chinese GDP second quarter report will be published and the BOJ rate decision.  Here is an economic news calendar for the week of July 11th to July 15th that highlights the main news items and reports related to Europe, U.S, China, Japan and Canada.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 11th of July 13:15 – Canadian Housing Starts: The upcoming report is regarding June 2011. In the recent report regarding May 2011, the seasonally adjusted housing starts reached 183,000 units, higher than the 178,700 units started during April 2011. This report indicates not only the progress of the real estate market, but also of the Canadian economy; if the upcoming report will be continue to be positive, it may further strengthen the Canadian dollar  (see here last report);
  2. Monday 11th of July 15:30 – Business outlook survey – Canada: This quarterly report presents a business survey of Canadian firms; in the recent report, which was published back in April 2011, the firms reported a growth in sales over the past 12 months, but they also reported an increase in input costs and subtle labor shortage (see here last report);
  3. Monday 11th of July tentative – Bank of Japan – rate decision and monetary policy statement: This statement will present Bank of Japan’s rate decision and other monetary related decisions. In the last statement the bank kept the interest rate at its low level of 0 to 0.1 percent. BOJ is likely to keep the rate at its current level and cut off the economic outlook for 2011. This statement could offer some insight to the economic progress of Japan following the recent tsunami turmoil back in March. Japan is among the leading countries in importing commodities such as gold, crude oil and natural gas;
  4. Tuesday 12th of July tentative –OPEC monthly report: this report will show the changes in crude oil and natural gas’s demand and supply worldwide; the report will also present the changes in the production of OPEC countries during June. See here for the summary of the last report;
  5. Tuesday 12th of July 13.30 –Canadian Trade balance: In the June report regarding April 2011, Imports and exports fell during that month: exports decreased by 1.9%, and imports declined by 0.6%; as a result, the trade deficit widen from $417 million in March to $924 million in April; exports of energy products inclined by 0.9%, to $9.3 billion, and exports of industrial goods and materials fell by 3.8% to $9.1 billion;
  6. Tuesday 12th of July 13.30 – Report on American Trade balance: This monthly report will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the US, including major commodities such as crude oil for the month of May 2011; The American trade balance report for April 2011 showed the goods deficit decreased by $3 billion compared to March 2011 and reached $58.1 billion; the service surplus rose by $0.2 billion to $14.4 billion; as a result, the goods and services deficit decreased by $3.1 billion to $43.7 billion;
  7. Wednesday 13th of July tentative –IEA monthly oil report: this report will present an updated outlook for the crude oil supply and demand for 2011 and 2012. See here for the summary of the last report;
  8. Wednesday 13th of July 02.00 –China second quarter GDP: during the first quarter of 2011, China grew by 9.7% in annual terms, and 2.1% in quarterly terms; due to the hikes in the interest rate and loans restrictions by the People Bank of China, we might see a slow down in the economic growth rate of China during the second quarter;
  9. Wednesday 13th of July 10.00 – EURO AREA industrial production report: The Euro Stat will publish its monthly report on the industrial production progress in the Euro Area during May; in the last report regarding April 2011, the IP grew by 0.2% in the Euro Area and 0.1% in the EU27 compared with March’s; in annual terms, during April the industrial production inclined by 5.2% in (Y-2-Y) in the Euro Area and 4.7% in the EU27 (read here the recent report);
  10. Wednesday 13th of July 15.00 – Ben Bernanke, Chairman of Fed, testifies: The Federal Reserve chairman’s is expected to testify before the US senate. Following Bernanke’s recent press conference in which he said there won’t be a new QE3 (for now), it will be interesting to see if he might hint of a new stimulus plan considering the recent dissipating US labor report;
  11. Wednesday 13th of July 15:30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S Petroleum report; last week the US oil stocks inclined by 477 thousand barrels, or 0.03%. For the week ending on July 1st crude oil stocks reached 1,792 million barrels (see here the recent crude oil market review);
  12. Thursday 14th of July 13.30 – U.S. producer price index news: This monthly report will show the progress in the PPI during June, i.e. the inflation rate from producers stand point. In the previous report regarding May, this index for finished goods inclined by 0.2%, following a rise of 0.8% during May; this index inclined mainly due to the rise in finished energy by 1.5% during May;
  13. Thursday 14th of July 13:30 – Department of Labor report – U.S. unemployment claims: For the week ending on July 2nd, initial claims decreased by 14,000, as it reached 418,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percent points to 2.9% for the week ending on June 24th; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.681 million, a decrease of 43,000 compared with the previous week’s. (see here my recent review on the US Labor market );
  14. Thursday 14th of July 15:30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the natural gas started to cool down; the EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on July 8th. In the recent report, natural gas storage inclined by 3.9% or by 95 Bcf; the natural gas storage inclined to 2.527 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states; the natural gas storage is still 1.9% below the 5-year average, and 8.1% below the storage level during the same week in 2010 (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  15. Friday 15th of July 13.30 – Report on US CPI: This monthly report shows the main changes in the core consumer price index. According to the US Bureau of Labor statistics for May 2011, the CPI rose by 0.2% and over the last 12 months by 3.6%. The main reasons for the rise are related to the food prices, while the energy prices fell during May and curbed the inflation pressures.


For further reading:

Previous Reports: