Weekly outlook for May 30 to June 3

Here is an economic news calendar for the week of May 30th to June 3rd that highlights the main news items and reports related to US, Canada, Australia and Europe.

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday 30th of May 13:30– Canada GDP by industry: This monthly report will present the changes in major industrial sectors for March 2011. In the last report pertaining February 2011, the real gross domestic product decreased by 0.2%, mainly due to drop in manufacturing by 1.6% during February; on the other hand, oil and gas extraction remained unchanged compared to previous month (for the full previous report).
  2. Tuesday 31st of May 10.00 – Euro Area annual inflation (May): there are still ongoing concerns regarding the inflation in Euro Area, due to the low interest rate (currently basic interest rate is at 1.25%), and the bailouts granted to Ireland, Greece and Portugal. In the last report of April 2011 the annual inflation rate was up to 2.8%, compared to 2.7% during March for Euro Area. There are expectations that in the upcoming report of May 2011 there will a further rise in the CPI (for the full previous report);
  3. Tuesday 31st of May 10.00 – Euro Area unemployment rate: The monthly report will show the seasonally adjusted data of April 2011 unemployment rate in Euro area. For the month of March, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.9%, i.e. 15.596 million people were unemployed in the Euro Area. In the EU27, 22.828 million people were unemployed during March 2011. This economic indictor shows there is little improvement so far in the EU zone (see here the last repot).
  4. Tuesday 31st of May 14.00 – Canada overnight rate: The Bank of Canada will publish its decision about the overnight interest rate, which is currently at 1%, in the last decision made on April 12th, the BOC didn’t change the basic interest rate. This decision could affect the CAD/USD; there are strong correlations among the Canadian dollar and major commodities that export including crude oil and gold;
  5. Wednesday 1st of June 2.30 – Australian GDP first quarter 2011: This quarterly report will show the change in Australia’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter 2011 compared to last quarter of 2010. In the last report, the GDP grew by 2.7% in annual terms in 4th quarter 2010. Australia is among the leading non-OPEC countries in exporting crude oil (see here last report);
  6. Wednesday 1st of June 10.20 – ECB president Trichet speaks: There are growing concerns over the debt crisis in Europe including in Greece and Portugal; Its seems that for now the ECB rate will remain unchanged, but Jean-Claude Trichet might signal in his upcoming speech about the future moves of ECB about the interest rates and future involvement in the debt crisis in Greece and Portugal (see here recent speech);
  7. Wednesday 1st of June 15.30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will present its weekly report on the U.S Petroleum prices and oil stocks; in the previous report, U.S. Petroleum and oil stocks moderately rose during last week by 6.7 million barrels, or by 0.38%. For the week ending on May 20th the oil stocks reached 1,780.7 million barrels (see here my recent review on crude oil stocks);
  8. Thursday 2nd of June 13.30 – Department of Labor report – US unemployment claims: For the week ending on May 21st, initial claims increased by 10,000, as it reached 424,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percent points to 2.9% for the week ending on May 14th; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.690 million, a decrease of 46,000 compared to the previous week’s number. (see here my recent review on the US Labor market );
  9. Thursday 2nd of June 15.30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the EIA will also report on the US natural gas market from last week including storage, production and consumption. In the recent EIA report, natural gas storage  increased for the seventh straight week, last week by 5.5%; this was a 105 Bcf injection – the highest injection since July 12th 2009 (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  10. Friday 3rd of May 13.30 – US unemployment rate report & non-farm employment change: This monthly report will show the changes in US employment during May 2011. In the previous report regarding April 2011, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 244 thousand people and the US unemployment rate rose to 9% a minor rise of 0.2 percent point compared to March 2011. The current expectations about the upcoming report are that there will be fewer non-farm employees that will enter the employment market compared to the previous month (see my last review on the US employment report);
  11. Friday 3rd of May 15.00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to May 2011, and will indicate the monthly change in non-manufacturing sector on a national level. During April there was a growth in this indicator, but slower than during March 2011. There was a rise in major commodities prices; there was also a supply shortage in certain commodities including cotton and cotton products (see here last report).


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5 comments for “Weekly outlook for May 30 to June 3

  1. Christopher Kelly
    May 29, 2011 at 9:22 pm

    Attention will be on those employment related releases this week. Whilst the Non Farm Payroll will invariably draw a good deal of the attention, the Jobless Claims have been equally as interesting in recent weeks. The figure has fallen considerably from the levels seen before the last NFP release, however it remains above the levels seen earlier in the year. We should recall that a few months back Initial Jobless Claims were at an almost two year low.

    Despite the recent gains, I feel that the US labour market is currently seeing a slowdown rather than anything else. Although the last NFP release showed a rise in the unemployment rate, this has to be taken in context; the figure had been falling during the previous months, and a small reversal in the figure was to be expected. The Unemployment Rate should hopefully continue to decrease from this month, and I believe that we may seen the figure fall slightly to around 8.9%.

  2. Ganiyu Kazeem
    May 30, 2011 at 5:51 am

    Thank you very much. You are encouraging us to be forex gurus. God bless you

    • May 30, 2011 at 7:58 am

      Thanks Ganiyu for the kind words. much appreciated.

  3. Haroon
    May 30, 2011 at 2:18 pm

    Crude oil is in sideway consolidation pattern from 94.63, so we are seeing support at this level. More consolidative trading would be seen in near term but upside, limited by 102.30 which is the resistance area. Break of 94.63 will target 90 psychological level next. Though, break of 102.30 will bring stronger rebound towards 104.70 high instead which was seen in May. For now I can see crude trading around the $100 mark but will have to keep an eye on key Economic data to see if the trend is set for a bearish/bullish trend.

    Good luck!

  4. A.Sathasivam
    May 30, 2011 at 6:52 pm

    thank you sir.

Comments are closed.