Weekly outlook for July 4 – 8

There are many news upon us in this upcoming week, including the US labor report, Euro rate decision, the Greek debt crisis and more that will likely to affect not only major currencies such as  Euros and US dollar, but also major commodities prices such as gold price and crude oil prices. Here is an economic news calendar for the week of July 4th to July 8th that highlights the main news items and reports related to Europe, U.S, Australia and Canada.

(all times GMT):

  1. Weekend  – Decision on Greek Debt: The European financial ministers will need to come up with a ruling in regards to the Greek debt; since the Greek parliament passed the budget cuts, it’s likely that Greece will receive the financial aid – update: Approved;
  2. Monday 4th of July 2:30 – Australian trade of Balance: The upcoming report will pertain May 2011. In the recent report regarding April 2011, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services declined from a surplus of $1,691 million during March 2011 to $1,597 million in April 2011 – a $94 million drop. There was a drop in export of non-monetary gold by 264 million; if this decline in gold export will continue, it might suggest a decrease in demand for non-monetary gold that could explain part of the recent fall in gold prices (see here last report);
  3. Tuesday 5th of July 5:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – rate decisions: Since November 2010 the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank didn’t change and remained at 4.75%. Since Australia’s inflation rate remains at the Bank’s target inflation, and the labor force remained robust with unemployment rate near 5%, it’s likely that the interest rate will remain unchanged (see here previous report);
  4. Tuesday 5th of July 15:00 – U.S. Department of Commerce –Durable Goods orders: This report will show the main changes in the new orders, shipments, inventories and capital goods of manufacturing goods in May2011; in the advance report regarding May 2011 new orders manufacturing goods inclined by $3.6 billion or 1.9% to $195.6 billion. The non-defense new orders for capital goods also increased by $4.0 billion or 5.8% to $72.9 billion. If the full report will show an increase, this might be a indication for a recovery of the US economy (see here previous report);
  5. Thursday 7th of July 13:30 – ECB conference Trichet speaks and Euro rate decision: Following the recent rate decision in which there was no raise, there are some who expect Jean Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank to announce a rate raise in the upcoming press conference; if so, it’s likely that it will be a moderate 0.25 percent point raise; if this will be the case, its likely to raise the Euros to US dollar exchange rate, along with gold prices;
  6. Thursday 7th of July 13:30 – Department of Labor report – U.S. unemployment claims: For the week ending on June 24th, initial claims decreased by 1,000, as it reached 428,000 claims; the insured unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percent points to 2.9% for the week ending on June 17th; and the number of insured unemployment was 3.702 million, a decrease of 12,000 compared with the previous week’s. (see here my recent review on the US Labor market );
  7. Thursday 7th of July 15:30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S Petroleum report; last week the US oil stocks declined by 323 thousand barrels, or 0.02%. For the week ending on June 24th crude oil stocks reached 1,791.6 million barrels (see here the recent crude oil market review);
  8. Thursday 7th of July 15:30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage: the natural gas started to cool down; the EIA will publish its U.S. natural gas stocks, production and consumption report for the week ending on July 1st. In the recent report, natural gas storage rose by 3.3% or 78 Bcf; as a result, the natural gas storage inclined to 2.432 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states – the highest stock since January 21st, 2011; the natural gas storage was 2.5% below the 5-year average (see here my recent natural gas storage review);
  9. Friday 8th of July 12:00 – Canada unemployment rate and employment report: In the previous employment report regarding May 2011, employment increased by 22,000, mainly in full time. Due to this rise along with the decline in number of people looking for work, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percent points to 7.4%. If this report will continue show an additional improvement in the labor report in Canada in June, this might further strengthen the Canadian dollar and consequently might also affect the prices of major commodities that Canada export such as crude oil and natural gas (see here previous report);
  10. Friday 8th of July 13.30 – US unemployment rate report & non-farm employment change: Following last month’s disappointing employment report, in which the  number of non-farm payroll employment increased by only 54 thousand people, and the US unemployment rate inclined to 9.1% a minor rise of 0.1 percent point compared with April’s rate, there are speculations that the upcoming report regarding June 2011 will show an improvement; some estimate the rate will remain unchanged at 9.1% and the number of non-farm payroll employment will increase by nearly 100,000; this report is likely to affect the strength of US dollar and major commodities prices (see my last review on the US employment report).



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