Everything You Need to Know For September — MM #157

The summer lull is about to end and Jackson Hole provides a hint for things to come. The calendar is packed with known events and a lot of known unknown events, such as the nomination of a new Fed Chair. We preview all the big events you need to know about.

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  1. Jackson Hole: What can central banks tell us that we don’t know? Well, not saying something is also meaningful.
  2. US recession?: After 8 years of growth, we play with the chances of a recession in the US. We weill get new data about the US economy quite soon.
  3. Jobs: With very stable jobs and wages, there is an opportunity for a surprise. But will it move the Fed? It will probably move the talk, but probably not any decisions.
  4. ECB-Fed dance: EUR/USD is on the up and up, but the ECB is far behind. What is going on? We try to explain the road ahead for the world’s most popular currency pair.
  5. German elections: The biggest country in the euro-zone holds elections, but the odds for a catastrophe are quite low. Will the elections unleash further euro upside? We explain the scene.
  6. BOE “boyfriend”: Brexit negotiations are currently overshadowing the BOE in moving the pound. Will it continue? Carney is the disloyal boyfriend and his balancing act could be more complicated.
  7. Who will lead the Fed?: A decision about the next Chair of the Fed could come in September. Gary Cohn or Janet Yellen? It has significant consequences for the Fed’s policy and the next big moves in the US dollar.
  8. Government shutdown: The US president and his troubles have a growing impact on the US dollar. Will this continue? We have the government shutdown, debt ceiling, and more.
  9. Wrapping it all up: With so much uncertainty about the economy, the face of the next Fed Chair, politics and more, it should be an interesting September in markets.

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