Financial Market Forecast for February 10-14

The financial markets rallied as most stocks markets and commodities rose during last week. Even the lower than expected number of jobs added in the U.S during January, according to latest NF payroll report, didn’t stop commodities and stocks to increase on Friday. This week several reports, decisions and testimonies will take place including: Yellen’s testimony, U.S industrial production, Japan’s current account, EU GDP for the fourth quarter, French industrial production, Australia’s employment report, U.S retail sales, Canada’s budget, U.S federal budget, China new loans, China  trade balance, and OPEC monthly update.  Here is an economic outlook for the week of February 10th to February 14th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, China, Japan, and Australia.   

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 10th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the developments in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;

08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of January; as of December, the production rose by 1.3%; this report may affect the Euro currency;

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance fell to a $25.6 billion surplus; if the surplus further falls, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t improving and thus may negatively affect commodities prices;

Tuesday, February 11th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent shifts in China’s new loans. According to the previous update, the total loans fell again to 483 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;

16:10 –Yellen Testifies: The newly appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to testify in front of House Financial Services Committee. The Fed chairman will provide a Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress; this testimony could affect the financial markets;

21:00 –Canada’s Annual Budget: This will show the Federal government’s budget for this year;

Wednesday, February 12th

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;

10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2014 and 2015;

15:30 – Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the European Monetary Institute’s “Progress through Crisis” Conference organized by the European Central Bank and National Bank of Belgium, in Brussels;

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held during the second week of January, the average rate reached 3.01% – the highest rate in recent months;

19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to January 2014; this report presents the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding December the deficit fell by $53 billion; if the deficit continues to narrows, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;

Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during January 2014; this update will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 7th;

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding December 2013 the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) decreased by 22,600 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

Thursday, February 13th

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for January analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of December) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to January; in the last report regarding December, retail sales slightly rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.7%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could suggest the developments in demand for gasoline;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 7th; in the latest report the jobless claims fell by 20k to reach 331k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 7th;

16:40 –Yellen Testifies: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will also testify in front of Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee;

02:30 – China’s CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 2.5%; if the annual rate continues to fall, it could suggest the Chinese economy is slowing down;

Friday, February 14th

07:00 –EU and German Fourth Quarter GDP 2013: In the third quarter of 2013, Germany’s economy grew by 0.3%. The progress of the German economy is likely to affect the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may adversely affect Euro;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding December 2013, manufacturing sales increased again by 1%;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during January; as of December, the production inched up by 0.3%; this report may affect the US dollar;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index slipped to 80.4;

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