Financial Market Forecast for November 10 -14

The recent release of the NFP payroll report came a bit short than expected with 214K jobs added during October — nonetheless, this was enough to bring down the U.S. dollar and pull back up gold and silver. Looking forward, this week’s JOLTS report will provide another indication for the progress in the labor market. Besides this report, in the U.S. retail sales, jobless claims and consumer sentiment will also be released. In Europe, the first estimate for third quarter GDP will come out for EU including Germany and France. In the UK, BOE’s quarterly inflation update and employment report will be released. Finally, China’s CPI and industrial production will also be published this week and may provide additional insight regarding the progress of this economy. So let’s review the economic colander for the week of November 10th to 14th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, November 10th

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of 1.6%; if the annual rate keeps falling, it could signal the Chinese economy is cooling down; the current expectations are for the CPI to remain flat;

Tuesday, November 11th

00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will show the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. It could provide an indication to the progress of the Japanese economy. In the last monthly update the surplus in the current account grew to 0.13 trillion yen;

01:30 – Australia’s NAB Business Confidence: This report measures the diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry; last time the index declined to 5;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly report, the total loans reached 857 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

Wednesday, November 12th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This index shows the shifts in the price businesses and government pay for labor, including bonuses; in the previous report, the index reached 0.7%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last month, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 18.6K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 6%;

10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the recent report, EU’s industrial production dropped by 1.8%; this economic report is another indicator for the progress of the EU economy; the current estimates are for this week’s report to show a 0.6% gain in industrial production, month over month;

10:30 –BOE Gov Carney Speaks: The Governor is due to hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;

10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2014 and 2015;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 7th;

Thursday, November 13th

03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the last monthly report, China industrial production rose to an annual rate of 8%; if the growth rate bounces back, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a faster pace;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 7th; in the last report the jobless claims declined to 278K;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for October, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding September, the number of jobs opening rose to 4.84 million; current market predictions are at 4.75 million;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 7th;

Friday, November 14th

07:00 –EU and German third Quarter GDP 2014: In the second quarter of 2014, Germany’s economy contracted by 0.2%. The progress of the German economy is likely to impact the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may drag down the Euro; currently, the market expects a 0.1% gain in the third quarter;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the last report, the CPI remained unchanged at an annual rate of 0.3% as of October. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding September 2014, manufacturing sales fell by 3.3%;

13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to October; in the last report regarding September, retail sales slipped by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail also decreased by 0.2%; this report also presents the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.2% gain in core retail sales in October;

All Day – G20 Summit: The leading ministers of finance will meet about a range of global economic issues, including Russian-Ukraine crisis, in Brisbane;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 86.4;

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