Financial Market Outlook for January 4-8

The first week of the year is upon us. This means markets return to function normally. This week entails several important reports that could drive back up market volatility. Some of these reports include: The U.S. NFP report,  minutes of FOMC meeting, China’s manufacturing PMI, German factory orders, U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, EU’s flash CPI, and Australia’s retail sales. So let’s breakdown the main reports for the week of January 4th to 8th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, January 4th

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the recent estimate, the PMI rose to 48.6; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 48.9 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting, albeit at a slower pace;

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for November 2015, retail sales slipped by 0.4%;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in November, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 52.7 – manufacturing is still expanding albeit at the slower pace;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to December 2015. In the recent update for November, this index declined to 48.6 — the manufacturing sector is contracting; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 49.1 – indicating the manufacturing conditions are still unfavorable;

Tuesday, January 5th

08:55 – German Unemployment: Last month, unemployment fell by 13K;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for November, the annual CPI inched up to 0.1%. The core CPI rose to 0.9%;

Wednesday, January 6th

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for December 2015 that will be published on Friday;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $2.8 billion;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for November will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for October, the goods and services deficit expanded to $43.9 billion;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in November, the PMI declined to 55.9– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 30th;

19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: The minutes will provide another look regarding the Fed’s recent hike decision. And more importantly take the temperature of FOMC members with respect to future rate rises;

Thursday, January 7th

00:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: According to the previous report, the deficit rose to $3.31 billion;

08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders increased by 1.8% during November; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 0.1% in December;

10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment inched down again to 10.7%;

13:25 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to talk at the Ottawa Business Journal and Chamber of Commerce Mayor’s Breakfast Series;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 30th; in the last report, jobless claims rose to 287K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 30th;

Friday, January 8th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade increased again by 0.5%;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding November, unemployment edged up to 7.1%; the employment decreased by 35.7K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report 211K jobs were added – slightly above expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5%. If the upcoming report shows another stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 202K), this could further pull up the USD;

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 1.5%; if the annual rate changes course and falls, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up;

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