Financial Market Outlook for June 27-July 1

The Brexit vote is still expected to have consequences – mostly negative – on the financial markets as investors and traders shift to risk-off assets. Now the question will remain how this Brexit impact markets in the coming weeks and months. Besides the ripple effect of the Brexit vote, there are still several reports and events that could also impact markets that unfold this week including:: U.S. GDP, EU flash CPI, U.S. core PCE, Canada’s GDP, GB manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, GB GDP, U.S. consumer confidence, China’s manufacturing PMI, and U.S. manufacturing PMI. So let’s examine the main events for the week of June 27th to July 1st.

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 27th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the shifts of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of May 2016. In the recent report, the annual growth rate for M3 declined to 4.6%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to reach 4.8% rate;

Tuesday, June 28th

13:30 – Final Estimate of U.S GDP for 1Q 2016: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s Q1 2016 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q1 the GDP grew by only 0.8%. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to rise to 1%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the last report for May, consumer confidence index declined to 92.6. The current estimates are that the index rose to 93.2;

Wednesday, June 29th

All Day – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the previous report the CPI rose by 0.3%; but in the upcoming report the CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the progress in the U.S. inflation. In the previous report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.2%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up again by 0.2%;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 24th;

Thursday, June 30th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for May 2016, retail sales declined by 0.9%; the current expectations are for a gain of 0.6%;

09:30 – GB’s GDP for Q1 2016: This is the last estimate of the GDP. In the first estimate the GDP in Q1 grew by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.4% gain in Q1 (see here last update);

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for May, the annual CPI inched down to -0.1%. The core CPI rose to 0.8%; in the upcoming report, the market estimates the CPI were to reach 0% and core CPI  to remain unchanged at 0.8%;  

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for April 2016. In the previous update regarding March 2016, the real gross domestic product fell by 0.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 24th; in the last report, jobless claims declined to 259K; in the next report, estimates are for 269K claims;

16:00 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 24th;

Friday, July 1st

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the PMI slipped to 49.2; current estimates are for the PMI to slide further to 49.1 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting and at a faster pace;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in May, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 50.1 – manufacturing is expanding; this time, the PMI is expected to slightly rise to 50.2 – still expanding and at a slightly faster pace;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Back in May, the PMI increased to 51.3 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace. And it’s estimated to inch up to 51.6 in the upcoming report, which means the manufacturing sector is expanding and an even faster rate;

For further reading: