Financial Market Preview for August 31-September 4

The U.S. GDP came up higher than expected at 3.7%. And this was enough to through China’s woes out the window and drive back up equities and energy commodities prices. But this could all change if the upcoming NFP report falls short of market expectations. Besides the NFP, ECB will convene again for a policy meeting. Other main reports and events include: RBA rate decision, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, G20 Summit, U.S. factory orders, Great Britain, China and U.S. manufacturing PMI, German factory orders. So let’s breakdown the agenda for the week of August 31st to September 4th.  

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 31st

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for July 2015, retail sales decreased by 2.3%;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for July, the annual CPI was unchanged at 0.2%. The core CPI rose to 1%. The current estimates are that the inflation remain flat at 0.2% last month, and the core CPI also unchanged;

Tuesday, September 1st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors aren’t growing. Current estimates are at 49.8 — China’s manufacturing conditions are contracting;

02:45 – China’s Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI: In the previous estimate, the PMI dipped to 47.8; current estimates are for the PMI to decline again to 47.2 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting at a faster pace; it’s less important than the flash estimate but could still fuel the worries over China’s growth;

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA left its cash rate flat at 2%. It also expected that the RBA were to maintain its rates unchanged this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and slash the rate considering the growing concerns over China’s economic outlook and falling commodities prices;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in July, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 51.9 – market expectations are that in August the PMI will remain unchanged;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the changes in major industrial sectors for June 2015. In the previous update regarding May 2015, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.2%; the current expectations are for the GDP to rise by 0.2%;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to August 2015. In the previous update for July, this index fell to 52.7 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower pace compared to the last month; current estimates are for the PMI to inch down to 52.6;

Wednesday, September 2nd

00:30 – Australian GDP Second Quarter of 2015: This quarterly report will refer to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2015. In the first quarter, the GDP grew by 0.9% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.4% gain in the second quarter (see here last update);

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for August 2015 that will be published on Friday;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report presents the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in August; in the latest report for July, factory orders bounced back by 1.8%; current projections are for a 0.8% gain in August;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 28th;

Thursday, September 3rd

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last update, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.7%;

01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services grew to 2.93 billion Australian dollars; the monthly update will also present the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: The press conference of ECB President Draghi is highly anticipated in light of the latest developments regarding the Greek deal and the woes over China’s growth. The ECB is not likely to change its policy but could offer some insight about the progress of its QE program and how long will it last;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance contracted to $0.5 billion;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for July will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for June, the goods and services deficit expanded again to $43.8 billion; current projections are for the deficit to slip to $43.2 billion;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 28th; in the last report, jobless claims slipped to 271K; the expectations are  for this number to remain virtually unchanged at 273K;

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: In the last July report, the PMI rose again to 60 — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate; current estimates are for the PMI to decline to 58.3;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 28th;

Friday, September 4th

08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders rose by 2% during July; currently, the market expectations are for a modest fall of 0.5% August;

All Day – G20 Summit: The summit will span over two days in which the G20 finance of ministers will convene and discuss the recent economic developments;

13:10 – FOMC Member Lacker Speaks: He is expected to give a speech titled “The Case Against Further Delay” at the Retail Merchants Association, in Richmond. Audience questions expected at the 2015 Public Pension Funding Forum, in Berkeley;

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding July, unemployment remained unchanged at 6.8%; the employment rose by 6.6K;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous July employment report, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 215K – not far off market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate was still at 5.3%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 220K), this could further bring back up the USD and drag down precious metals;

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