China continues to raise voices of concern over its progress, Greece’s troubles are far from over (the talks over the debt restructuring should start this week) and Iran’s impact on the oil market is still unclear now that a nuclear deal was reached. Nonetheless, the markets didn’t offer any big headlinese in the past week. The volatility in the financial markets, however, hasn’t subsided. This week the focus will shift back to the U.S. with the first estimate of Q2 2015 GDP growth rate and the FOMC meeting. Other reports or events to consider include: U.S. consumer sentiment, Governor Stevens talks, GB GDP for Q2, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S. pending home sales, EU monetary development, U.S durable goods, EU CPI, and German business climate. So let’s review the main events and reports for the week of July 27th to July 31st:
(All times GMT):
Monday, July 27th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index consists of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of July. In the June update, the business climate index slipped to 107.4;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of June 2015. In the last May report, the annual growth rate for M3 slipped to 5%; M1 increased to 11.2%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector grew to 1%;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to June and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of May 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined by 2.2%, month over month, while all manufacturing industries dropped by 1%;
Tuesday, July 28th
09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q2 2015: This report will show the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the second quarter of 2015; current projections are for a 0.7% gain;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the latest report for June, the consumer confidence index increased to 101.4. The current estimates are for a gain as the index will reach 100.1;
Wednesday, July 29th
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for June 2015, retail sales increased by 0.5%;
09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the recent monthly report, the index slipped to 10.1;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during June; in the previous update for May, pending home sales index rose by 0.9% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting: This will be the fifth FOMC meeting for the year and will take place between July 28th and 29th. The market doesn’t expect, yet again, any big changes to the Fed’s policy, but the statement could offer a bit of insight behind the deliberations of the FOMC members and what’s up ahead. Their reaction to the latest developments in Europe and China and how the U.S. economy is progressing. If we were to see a hawkish statement this could suggest the rate hike in September is more plausible, which may drag further down the price of gold and pull up the USD;
02:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Boao Forum for Asia Financial Cooperation Conference, in Sydney;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 24th;
Thursday, July 30th
13:30 – Advance U.S GDP 2Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the first quarter the GDP contracted by 0.2%. The current estimates are much higher and expect the GDP had expanded by 2.7% back in Q2. A better than expected growth rate could further boost the odds of a rate hike in September;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 24th; in the previous report the jobless claims declined to 255K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 24th;
Friday, July 31st
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the previous estimate for June, the annual CPI was 0.2%. The core CPI slipped to 0.8%. The current estimates are that the inflation remain at 0.2% last month, and the core CPI to remain flat as well;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 11.1%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for May 2015. In the previous update regarding April 2015, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.1%; the current expectations are for the GDP to remain flat;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index bounced back to 96.1;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI remained flat at 50.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are only modestly growing. Current estimates are at 50.2 — China’s manufacturing conditions are growing at the same pace;
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