Financial Market Preview for March 30- April 3

The financial markets shifted focus from Yellen to Yemen, which kept the high volatility mainly over the rising tensions in the Middle East. This week, the main report will to be released is the NF payroll. Other U.S. reports include: manufacturing PMI, PCE, factory orders, trade balance, pending home sales, and consumer confidence.  In Europe, the main economic reports include flash CPI, unemployment update, GB manufacturing PMI, and German retail sales. In China, manufacturing PMI will be released. So let’s review the agenda for March 30th to April 3rd:

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 30th

Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for February 2015, the CPI bounced back by 0.9%. In forthcoming report, the expectations are for the CPI to increase again, this time, by 0.4%;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to decline to 89.3;

13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another report the FOMC follows to get a sense of the progress of inflation. In the recent report, the PCE index slipped again by 0.2% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the PCE to rise by 0.3% and 0.1% gain in core PCE in the next report;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during February; in the previous update for January, pending home sales index rose by 1.7% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;

Tuesday, March 31st

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for February 2015, retail sales increased by 2.9%; this month’s estimates are for a drop of 0.9%;

08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the unemployment declined again by 20K;

09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any shifts in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. According to the last update, the deficit expanded to 27.0 billion pounds;

09:30 – Final GB GDP 4Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the last update of GB’s fourth quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate GB’s GDP grew by 0.7%. Currently, the market expectations are for the GDP to reach a growth rate of 0.5%;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for February, the annual CPI reached -0.3%. The core CPI remained at 0.6%. This is still below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to remain at -0.3% and the core CPI will also remain flat at 0.6%;

10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the rate of unemployment slipped to 11.2%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area is only slightly improving;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the changes in major industrial sectors for January 2015. In the last update regarding December 2014, the real gross domestic product expanded by 0.3%; the current expectations are for the GDP to inch up by 0.2%;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent update for February, the consumer confidence index dropped to 96.4; this suggests consumer spending is growing slower. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will slip to 96.6;

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s Manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.9 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. If the updated PMI index falls, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing down;

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate for its March’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing. Current estimates are at 49.3 — so China’s manufacturing conditions are contracting;

Wednesday, April 1st

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During February, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose again to 54.1 – market expectations are that in March the PMI edged up to 54.5;

15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to March 2015. Back in February, the index declined to 52.9; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slower rate; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to decline to 52.5;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for March 2015 that will be published on Friday;

15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 27th

01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the recent update, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services expanded to 0.98 billion dollars; the report will also show the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);

Thursday, April 2nd

13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 27th; in the previous report, the jobless claims fell to 282K;

13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the trade balance expanded to $2.5 billion;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for February will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding January the goods and services deficit contracted to $41.8 billion; current projections are for the deficit to contract to $41.5 billion;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in March; in the latest report regarding February factory orders fell again by 0.2%; current projections are for no change in the previous month;

15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of March 27th;

Friday, April 3rd

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the recent employment report referring to February 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 295K – well above market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate inched down to 5.5%. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain (current projections are at 251K), this could further strengthen the USD and drag down gold and silver;

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