Financial Market Preview for May 25-29

This week will be short on account of Memorial Day, but this doesn’t mean we could see a rise in volatility following the end of the long weekend in the U.S. financial markets. On this week’s agenda: U.S. durable goods, pending and new home sales, EU monetary development, U.S. and GB second estimate of GDP for Q1, BOC’s rate decision, German consumer climate, BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes, Canada’s GDP, and Japan’s trade balance.  So let’s break down the main events and reports for the week of May 25th to May 29th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, May 25th

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In February 2015 the Japanese trade balance was balanced (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; the trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;

Tuesday, May 26th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refers to April and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of March 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined by 0.2%, month over month; current estimates are for a 0.5% gain;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for April, the consumer confidence index declined to 95.2. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will reach 95.3;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to March 2015; in the latest report (opens pdf; for February), the sales of new homes slipped at an annual rate of 481,000; current estimates are for a gain to an annual rate of 501,000;

23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting may add some insight behind its recent meeting;

Wednesday, May 27th

09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly update, the index rose to 10.1. If the index keeps slowly picking up, this could suggest the German economy is improving;

15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada didn’t change last time its overnight rate – the rate is currently at 0.75%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy;

Thursday, May 28th

02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report presents the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the first quarter of 2015. As of the recent quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure declined by 2.2% (Q-o-Q). Current estimates are for a -2.3% drop in the past quarter;

09:30 – Second Estimate of Great Britain GDP Q1 2015: This report will present the second estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the first quarter of 2015; in the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.3%; if this report shows a different growth rate, this could move the British pound; currently, the market estimates the GDP report will show a growth rate of 0.4%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 22nd; in the last report the jobless claims slightly rose to 274K;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during April; in the previous update for March, pending home sales index rose by 1.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 22nd;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of May 22nd;

Friday, May 29th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for April 2015, retail sales decreased by 2.3%;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to rise to 90.3;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of April 2015. In the previous March report, the annual growth rate for M3 increased again to 4.6%; M1 also increased to 10%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached 0.8%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise again to 4.6%;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the changes in major industrial sectors for March 2015. In the last update regarding February 2015, the real gross domestic product remained flat; the current expectations are for the GDP to edge up by 0.2%;

13:30 – Second U.S GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP rose by 0.2%; this was lower than expected. The current estimates are that the GDP contracted by 0.9% in the past quarter – a downward revision. If the US gross domestic product shows a contraction, this could adversely impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the previous report, the sentiment index increased to 95.9;

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