Forex Crunch’s Forex Outlook Report for Q4 2011 is Out

Forex Crunch has published a quarterly forex outlook, for Q4 2011. The report dives into the main themes that are likely to move the markets in Q4.

Guest Post by Yohay Elam

The euro zone is likely to finally accept a Greek default in this quarter. Among the four scenarios presented in the report, the scenario of more leg dragging can always repeat itself, yet there are many signs leading to an orderly default in Greece, yet no so elegant. An orderly default will provide a lot of relief to financial markets and the euro in particular, but the level of global coordination, the composition of participants and the execution will likely lead to a weaker euro. There are many moving parts in this crisis, and the details are due to make the difference.

US debt is set to return to the limelight. The bipartisan committee is due to provide a plan for long term debt reduction during this quarter. If no agreement is reached, automatic cuts will be made. Contrary to the European debt crisis, the details matter less. The committee may reach an agreement or fail to do so. What matters for the dollar is the level of political noise and media attention. Also Obama’s job plan is on the cards. Obama’s plan can be fully approved, changed or delayed.

The question of a recession in the US was important in Q3, and will be even more important now, as the US might have to retake the position of the global locomotive, amid the Chinese landing. The Chinese slowdown and the situation of the US economy are covered in depth in the report.

What else can you find in there? Currency outlooks for 7 currencies; this includes key fundamental points to watch out for each country, and a high time frame technical analysis for each currency against the dollar. The effect of the more QE in the UK hasn’t been fully felt yet. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar is not only volatile but also very vulnerable, while the Canadian dollar’s situation is complicated, yet has positive prospects.

And last but not least, there is timetable of key events, and some tips and resources for traders. Fasten your seat belts during the first week of November!

To download the report for free, please go to and sign up for the newsletter to receive the report.