Gold and Silver – Daily Outlook for November 29th

Gold and silver markets were closed in the U.S yesterday on account of the U.S holidays. Today the U.S markets will be open for half a day. This could mean low volume of trade and little movement in the forex, stocks and commodities markets. Yesterday, EU monetary developments monthly update came out and showed a slowdown the EU inflation pressures: M1 and M3 fell to an annual rate of 6.6% and 1.4%, respectively. Loans to private sector reached -2.1%. This news, however, seems to have had little effect on the Euro as it slightly appreciated against the USD. On today’s agenda: Germany’s Retail Sale, KOF Economic Barometer, Canada’s GDP by Industry, and China Manufacturing PMI.

On Today’s Agenda

Germany’s Retail Sale: This monthly update provides an estimate for Germany’s retail sales in the past month. In the past report, retail sales slipped by 0.4% – lower than expected. If retail sales continue to fall, it could indicate Germany’s economy isn’t progressing, which could pressure down the Euro;

KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report projects the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;

Canada‘s GDP by Industry: In the last update regarding August 2013, the real gross domestic product slightly rose by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;

China Manufacturing PMI: As of October, the Manufacturing PMI slightly rose for fifth consecutive month to 51.4 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slightly faster rate; in the last flash PMI report (by HSBC), the index fell to 50.4. If in the upcoming report the PMI start to fall, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;

Currencies / Precious Metals Correlations – November Update

On Thursday, the Eur/USD currency pair slightly rose by 0.2% to 1.3606. During November, the Eur/USD rose by 0.16%. On the other hand, other currencies such as the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar also moderately appreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.24% and 0.13%, respectively. The correlations among gold, silver and Euro weakened but is still robust, e.g. the correlation between the Euro/USD and gold price is 0.50 during October/November.  

Here is a reminder of the main events and publications that are scheduled for today (all times GMT):


All day – Germany’s CPI

08:55 – German Unemployment Rate

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks

13:30 – Canada’s Current Account

For further reading: