Gold and Silver – Daily Outlook for November 7th

The gold and silver market remained nearly flat again as gold and silver prices slightly rose after they had declined a day earlier. But today and tomorrow precious metals and forex market could start to pick up especially if the upcoming events and reports don’t meet the current market expectations. Tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report could stir up the market and may even affect the market expectations about the future steps of the FOMC. Today the main report from the U.S is the GDP early estimate.  Will gold and silver change direction again? On today’s agenda: ECB Rate Decision, ECB President Speaks, Australia Employment Update, BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan, German Industrial Production, U.S. Jobless Claims, and First U.S GDP 3Q 2013 Estimate.

Here is a short overview for precious metals for Thursday, November 7th:

Gold and Silver – November Review                         

On Wednesday, gold rose by 0.73% to $1,317.7; Silver also increased by 0.51% to $21.75. During November, gold decreased by 0.45%; silver, by 0.39%. In the chart below are the normalized rates of bullion for 2013 (normalized to 100 as of October 15th). The prices of gold and silver rose during the past month.

Gold and silver Chart 2013  November 7The ratio between the two precious metals slightly increased on Wednesday to 60.60. During November, the ratio decreased by 0.05% as silver has moderately out-performed gold.

Gold  to silver ratio Chart 2013  November 7The gold and silver futures volumes of trade have fallen and reached on Wednesday 116 thousand and 42 thousand, respectively.


volume Gold & silver prices 2013  November 7On Today’s Agenda

First U.S GDP 3Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the latest estimate the U.S GDP rose by 2.5% in the second quarter of 2013 (it was revised up). If the growth rate from second quarter of 2013 to the third quarter further rises, this could positively affect the US dollar;

ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce of any changes to its monetary policy and economic outlook as of November. The current expectations are that ECB will leave the interest rate, which is currently set at 0.5%, unchanged. But ECB President Draghi is likely to refer to ECB’s economic outlook. He could change the expectations on the LTRO and interest rate, which could affect mid-term expectations and thus affect the Euro. Finally, if ECB surprises and cuts its cash rate or deposit rate, the Euro is likely to resume its downward trend, which may drag along with it commodities prices;

Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding October 2013 the rate of unemployment inched down to 5.6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly increased by 9,100 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);

German Industrial Production: The next report will pertain to October 2013. In the last update, the industrial production increased by 1.4% during September;

BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will publish its basic rate for November 2013; the MPC will also state of any new changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of October, BOE left its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;

U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  In the previous report the jobless claims slightly fell by 10k to reach 340k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi is expected to participate in a panel discussion at the Economic Forum organized by Die Zeit newspaper, in Hamburg;

Currencies / Precious Metals Correlations – November Update

On Wednesday, the Euro/ USD currency pair rose by 0.29% to 1.3513. During November, the Euro/USD declined by 0.52%. Moreover, other currencies such as the Aussie dollar also slightly appreciated by 0.21% yesterday against the U.S dollar. The correlations among gold, silver and Euro remained strong and positive in recent weeks, e.g. the correlation between the Euro/USD and gold price is 0.61 during October/November.

Here is a reminder of the main events and publications that are scheduled for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):


02:30 – Australia Employment Update

11:00 – German Industrial Production

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims

13:30 – First U.S GDP 3Q 2013 Estimate

19:00 – ECB President Speaks


01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report

13:30 – U.S Personal spending

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance

Tentative – China New Loans

Tentative – China’s CPI

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment

20:30 – Bernanke’s Speech

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production

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