The holiday season is behind us and the markets are likely to slowly weaken from their two week slumber. The prices of gold and silver declined during the week and might change direction in the coming days. On today’s agenda: China Manufacturing PMI, Spanish Manufacturing PMI, GB Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Jobless Claims, and U.S Manufacturing PMI.
Here is a short overview for precious metals for Thursday, January 2nd:
Gold and Silver – January Review
On Tuesday, gold slightly declined by 0.12% to $1,202.3; Silver, by 1.34% to $19.34. During last month, gold declined by 3.85%; silver, by 3.30%. In the chart below are the normalized prices of precious metals for 2013 (normalized to 100 as of November 29th). The prices of gold and silver have slightly declined during December.
On Today’s Agenda
China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last update on its estimate for December’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 50.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding at a slightly slower pace than the previous month. If the updated PMI index falls again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to Spain’s manufacturing sector in December 2013. In the last update regarding November 2013 the index fell to 48.6. This rate drop means the manufacturing sector is contracting;
GB Manufacturing PMI: During November, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 58.4. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate; this index might affect GB Pound;
U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 28th; in the previous report the jobless claims decreased by 42k to reach 338k;
U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to December 2013. In November, the index rose again to 57.3% – the highest level in the past couple of years; this means the manufacturing is growing at a faster rate;
Currencies / Precious Metals Correlations – December Update
On Wednesday, the Eur/USD currency pair fell by 0.42% to 1.3743. During December, the Eur/USD increased by 1.12%. Conversely, other currencies such as the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar slightly appreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.15% and 0.23%, respectively. The correlations among gold, silver and Euro have further weakened again in recent weeks, e.g. the correlation between the Euro/USD and gold price is only 0.10 during November-December – its lowest level since September. This could suggest the movement of gold and silver prices have little to do with the developments in the forex market.
Here is a reminder of the main events and publications that are scheduled for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI
08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer
08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development
09:30 – GB Construction PMI
For further reading: