Gold and silver declined yesterday and thus continued their downward trend from last week. The Japanese yen continues to loose ground against the USD and Euro, while the Euro and other risk related currencies slightly appreciated against the USD. Will gold and silver continue to trade down today? Currently, the price of gold is slightly declining. On today’s agenda: Swiss Inflation monthly update, Great Britain Manufacturing Production and China New Loans.
Here is a short outlook for precious metals for Tuesday, April 9th:
Precious Metals – April Update
On Monday, the price of gold slightly declined by 0.22% to $1,572.1; Silver also decreased by 0.30% to $27.14. During April, gold declined by 1.42%; silver, by 4.08%.
In the chart below are the normalized prices of gold and silver between March and April (normalized to 100 as of February 28th). The prices of gold and silver declined in recent weeks.
The ratio between the two precious metals rose on Monday to 57.93. During April the ratio increased by 2.77% as gold slightly out-performed silver.
The gold and silver futures volumes of traded high on Friday and reached 216 thousand and 57 thousand, respectively. These numbers are higher than the volume traded at the beginning of March. If the volume will remain high today, this could suggest the odds of sudden sharp changes in the prices of gold and silver due to high volume will increase. The chart below presents the volume of trading gold and silver futures in the CME during March and April.
On Today’s Agenda
China New Loans: This report will refer to the recent developments in China’s new loans. According to the recent report, the total loans changed course and declined; this report is another indicator to the economic progress of China;
Swiss Inflation: this report will show to the monthly shifts in the Swiss consumer price index as of March 2013; in the recent report regarding January the CPI rose by 0.3%;
Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this report will preset the yearly rate of GB’s manufacturing production for February; in the previous report regarding January 2013 the index changed course and fell by 1.5% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;
Currencies / Bullion Market – April Update
The Euro/ USD slightly increased again on Monday by 0.15% to 1.301. During the month, the Euro/USD increased by 1.51%. Moreover, other currencies such as the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar appreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.29% and 0.10%, respectively. The Japanese yen continued to decline against the USD and Euro. It reached yesterday 99.3 – the highest level in nearly three years. Nonetheless, the appreciation of “risk related currencies” against the USD didn’t seem to pull up the prices of gold and silver. The correlations among gold, Euro and Canadian dollar remained weak during March/April: the linear correlation between gold and Euro/USD was -0.03 (daily percent changes); the linear correlation between the gold and USD/CAD reached 0.30 (daily percent changes). These weak correlations suggest the recent fall of gold and silver had little to do with the daily movement in the foreign exchange markets.
Current Gold and Silver Rates as of April 9th
Gold (short term delivery) is traded at $1,572.3 per t oz. a $1.3 or 0.06% decrease as of 23:21*.
Silver (short term delivery) is at $27.22 per t oz – a 0.06% increase as of 23:21*.
(* GMT)
Here is a reminder of the top events and publications that are scheduled for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
Today
08:15 – Swiss Inflation
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production
Tentative – China New Loans
Tomorrow
Tentative –China’s Trade Balance
Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report
08:45 – French Industrial Production
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting in March
19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance
Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction
02:30 – Australia Employment Report
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