Hedge Funds Bullish on Gold; Gold Price still Down

There are a growing number of articles that quote Hedge funds managers who claim to increase their exposure on gold.

On Monday, November 21st when gold price sharply declined Bloomberg reported that Hedge Funds cut their bullish bets on many commodities due to the debt concerns in Europe, but the article also showed that Hedge funds also increased their net long position in gold. This trend in gold hoarding was confirmed again today with Bloomberg’s report that gold traders continue to be bullish on the precious metal.

The only problem is that this gold hoarding isn’t represented in the current gold price. During the past couple of weeks from November 11th to November 25thgold price declined by 5%; silver price also sharply declined by 7.8%.

Gold price forecast & silver price outlook 2011 November 24

The chart above shows the recent downward fall of both precious metals prices’.

This could mean that despite the growing bullish bets of Hedge Funds in gold, their purchase power doesn’t keep up with the many traders who trade down gold.

On the other hand, if this gold hoarding will continue, it’s likely to eventually change the recent downward direction of gold and silver prices and help them rally.

Forex Trading / Gold & Silver Prices – November

The Euro to U.S Dollar exchange rate didn’t do much yesterday and only slightly inclined yesterday by 0.04% to reach 1.3347. Other forex currencies also moderately appreciated against the US dollar including the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. During November the correlations among the daily percent changes of gold price, silver price and Euro/USD, AUD/USD and CAD/USD were strong and positive; if these exchange rates will further rise, they may also pressure gold and silver prices to rally. Currently Euro/USD is traded down over the growing European debt concerns, while AUD/USD is traded up.

Current Gold and Silver Prices Per Ounce

The precious metals prices are currently traded with mixed trend in the American markets:

Current gold price per ounce short term future (December 2011 delivery) is traded at $1,700.9 per t oz. a $2.1 or 0.12% increase as of 15:46*.

Current silver price per ounce short term future (December 2011 delivery) is at $31.720 per t oz – a $0.244 or 0.76% decline as of 15:47*.

The current ratio of gold to silver prices per ounce is at 53.62.

(* GMT)

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Lior Cohen, M.A. commodities analyst and blogger at Trading NRG.