Here is a short overview and an outlook for the upcoming week of April 9th to April 13th; this includes a short description of the main news items, public speeches, and events that may have affect precious metals prices during last week.
Gold and silver started very strong last week and thus continued their upward trend from the previous week, but then the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were published. In the minutes it was strongly suggested there is no need for the time being for any further intervention by the Fed (i.e. no additional stimulus plans) until the U.S economy will show additional signs of slowdown. Many commodities prices reacted the following day and plummeted including gold and silver prices. The following day gold and silver bounced back a bit as a correction to their fall. By the end of the week The U.S. labor force didn’t rise as many had expected: according to the recent U.S. employment report, the number of non-farm employees rose by 120,000.
As I have already explained in the April gold price monthly report, historically, as the non-farm payrolls rose gold price tended to decline; this correlation was mostly due to the effect this news had on the U.S dollar; the news of the moderate increase in the U.S. labor force during March could affect bullion prices in two different directions: it could have a positive effect on gold and silver prices because this slowdown might rekindle the speculation around another stimulus plan to be issued by the Fed. I think it’s still early to consider this figure as a shift in the economic growth of theU.S.
Alternatively, the table below shows the correlation between the news of the U.S.non-farm payroll employment changes and the daily changes in gold and silver prices on the day of the U.S. labor report publication. This table suggests that (all things being equally) gold and silver prices may moderately decline coming Monday.
During last week gold price sharply decreased during last week by 2.5%; Gold price ended the week at $1,630 /t. oz.
Silver price also sharply fell on a weekly scale by 2.32%.
The Euro sharply declined against the U.S dollar during last week by 1.84% (on a weekly scale); on the other hand, other “risk” currencies such as the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar only slightly depreciated against the U.S dollar during said time. The drop in Euro/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD may have been among the factors to pull gold and silver prices down during last week. If this downward trend for both metals prices will continue, it could have a negative effect on bullion prices during the upcoming week.
In this outlook I use charts and a fundamental analysis to examine how the upcoming events and financial publications may affect the daily percent changes of gold and silver prices.
The video link above provides a broad forecast for the main news, public speeches and events that may affect gold and silver prices during the week of April 9th to April 13th; the video includes reviewing the main reports, events, decisions and news items that will come out during the upcoming week. Some of these reports and events include: U.S. consumer price index, American and Canadian trade balance, Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and rate decision, U.S PPI, Federal budget balance and U.S. jobless claims weekly update (just to name a few).
For further reading:
Gold and Silver Prices Outlook for April 2012
What Are the Potential Outcomes for Gold Price in 2012?