During last week gold and silver prices edged up. There weren’t too many events that affected the bullion or forex markets. There were several reports that came out during the week but none of them seem to have a substantial effect on precious metals. The U.S trade balance deficit declined during June; U.S. jobless claims declined last week by 6k to 361k.
During the upcoming week there are several important publications and events that may affect precious metals markets: U.S Philly fed index, Euro Area GDP for Q2 2012, U.S PPI, minutes of BOJ monetary policy, U.S housing starts, Canada and America’s CPI, and U.S. jobless claims.
Here is a short outlook for August 13th to August 17th; this includes a fundamental analysis of the main publications, and events that may affect precious metals rates.
Gold increased during last week by 0.84%; further, during said time the average rate was 0.52% above last week’s rate. Gold finished at $1,622.8 /t. oz.
Silver, also rose on a weekly scale by 0.94%; further, the average rate increased by 1.38% to reach $28.04/t oz. Furthermore, during last week the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) also rose by 1.04% and settled by August 10th at 157.18.
The Euro declined against the U.S dollar by 0.78% (on a weekly scale); alternatively, other “risk” currencies such as the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar appreciated against the U.S dollar by 0.08% and 1.02%, respectively. The rally of the AUD and CAD may have contributed to the rise of bullion rates. The correlation between the AUD/USD and precious metals remains high: during the month the correlation between Euro/USD and gold reached 0.56; between USD/CAD and gold, -0.6. This means if the AUD and CAD will continue to trade up it could pull up gold and silver during the week. On the other hand the decline of the Euro could adversely affect bullion rates.
In the video below there is a broad review of the main publications, statements and reports that may affect gold and silver prices between August 13th and August 17th. These include the above-mentioned news items such as: U.S Philly fed index, Euro Area GDP for Q2 2012, U.S PPI, minutes of BOJ monetary policy, U.S housing starts, Canada and America’s CPI, and U.S. jobless claims (just to name a few).
In conclusion, I guess the precious metals prices will moderately trade up during the upcoming week. There are several reports that could pressure up precious metals rates: the housing starts and building permits might decline; the Philly Fed index could further rise; the ECB President could announce he’s plan to offer loans to struggling countries such as Spain and Italy. On the other hand, if the Euro Area GDP will not expand it could adversely affect the Euro which could pressure down bullion rates. Finally, if the Euro, Aussie dollar and other rates will trade up against the USD, this trend could pressure up precious metals.
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