Gold and silver prices changed direction and moderately declined yesterday, even though other commodities prices such as crude oil prices rose on Wednesday. Currently, gold and silver prices are slightly rising. Today, the U.S. final Q3 GDP will be published, GB’s GDP of third quarter and U.S. Unemployment Claims.
Here is a market outlook of precious metals prices for today, December 22nd:
Gold and Silver Prices –December Update
Gold price slightly slipped on Wednesday by 0.25% to $1,613.6; silver price also declined by 0.97% to $29.25. The chart below shows the downward trend of gold and silver prices during most of December (normalized gold and silver prices to November 30th 2011). During December gold price decreased by 7.8% and silver price by 10.8%.
U.S Existing Home Sales Rose in November
On Today’s Agenda
Great Britain Updated GDP 3Q 2011: This will be the final projection of the third quarter real GDP of GB. In the previous estimate of the GDP for the 3Q2011 grew by 0.5%; if the final rate will change, it may affect the GBP/USD exchange rate;
Final U.S GDP 3Q 2011 Report: This will also be the final estimate of U.S. GDP growth rate in the third quarter. In the preliminary estimates the 3Q2011 GDP growth rate was 2.0%, compared with 1.3% increase at 2Q2011. This shows a slightly higher growth rate for the US’s GDP even though the recent Q3 growth rate estimate was revised down; another revision may also affect forex and commodities traders (for the second estimate of 3Q GDP).
U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims decreased by 19,000 to 366,000 claims for the week ending on December 10th; the number of insured unemployment slightly inclined by 4k to 3.603 million during the week of December 3rd.
Forex Trading / Gold & Silver Prices – December Update
The Euro to U.S Dollar changed direction again and slipped on Wednesday by 0.28% to reach 1.3047. On the other hand, other forex exchange rates such as the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar slightly appreciated against the U.S dollar. If major currencies will appreciate against the U.S. dollar, it may also affect gold and silver prices to bounce back.
U.S. Treasuries / Gold & Silver Prices – December Update
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield inclined again on Wednesday by 0.04 percent points to 1.98%; during December the 10 year treasury yield dropped by 0.10 percent point. Furthermore, during December there were positive correlations among the daily percent changes of U.S. 10 year notes yield and gold and silver prices (0.245 and 0.503, respectively). If the LT U.S. treasury yield will further rise, it may also continue to pressure up gold and silver prices. The graph below shows the development and strong relation between gold price and U.S 10 year treasury yield during December.
The major precious metals are currently traded slightly up in the European markets:
Current gold price per ounce short term future (January 2012 delivery) is traded at $1,617.40 per t oz. a $3.8 or 0.24% increase as of 08:35*.
Current silver price per ounce short term future (January 2012 delivery) is at $29.620 per t oz – a $0.371 or 1.27% increase as of 08:34*.
Gold and Silver Prices Outlook:
Gold and silver prices continue to zigzag and changed direction again as they both moderately declined yesterday. The rally in other commodities prices mainly crude oil prices and Forex markets (such as CAD and AUD) and most American Stock indexes (including S&P500) didn’t coincided with yesterday’s falls of precious metals prices. The upcoming news from Europe and U.S. in regards to the final GDP might stir up the markets if there will be substantial changes; otherwise if the rest of the commodities will continue to trade up, U.S. LT treasuries yields will rise, and major currencies will also continue to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, gold and silver prices are likely to follow and bounce back.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
09:30 – Great Britain Updated GDP 3Q 2011
13:30 – Final U.S GDP 2Q 2011 Report
13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Market Report
13:30 – Canada GDP by Industry
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales
For further reading:
Monthly Analysis and Outlook: