Gold and silver prices started off the week slightly falling along with other commodities such as oil. The Euro and AUD also traded down against the US dollar. There are still concerns regarding the Greek debt and the recent EU Summit, which was held yesterday, didn’t seem to ease these concerns. Currently gold and silver are traded slightly up. Today, the EU unemployment rate will come out (update: rate rose to 10.4%); other publications that might affect the market include: U.S consumer confidence report; Canada’s GDP and China’s Manufacturing PMI.
Here is a report of major news items and events, and an analysis of metals prices for today, January 31st:
Gold and Silver Prices –January Update
Gold price slightly fell on Monday by 0.06% to $1,734.4; silver price also slightly rose by 0.14% to $33.79. During January, gold price rose by 10.70% and silver price by 20.10%. Some attribute the recent rally in silver market to the expected increase in the demand for silver in 2012; there are estimations the demand for silver in the manufacturing sector will grow by 2.5 compared with 2011’s demand. Even if this will be the case, I think the rapid growth in the price of silver is probably more a speculative move than a fundamental change.
The chart below shows the sharp changes of prices of gold and silver during the month so far.
Euro Area Unemployment Rate: in recent months, the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 10.3%; there are expectations this rate will rise to 10.4%; if so it might weaken the Euro;
U.S Consumer Confidence: consumer confidence index increased in December. The current expectations are that this index might continue to rally, because the U.S. economy has shown signs of recovery; this report might influence commodities traders;
China Manufacturing PMI: China’s Manufacturing PMI indicates the growth rate of China’s manufacturing sectors; China is among the leading countries in importing precious metals; if the PMI will continue rising, this might also positively affect the direction of commodities prices;
Forex Market / Gold & Silver Market – January
The Euro/U.S Dollar traded down on Monday by 0.06% to reach 1.3144 – this was the first decline after five consecutive days in which the Euro rose against the U.S Dollar; if the Euro will bounce back from this fall against the U.S Dollar it could indicate that precious metals prices will also rally as well. Currently, the Euro/USD is trading up.
Current Gold and Silver Prices January 31st
Gold price per ounce (February 2012 delivery) is traded at $1,739.8 per t oz. a $5.4 or 0.31% increase as of 07:08*.
Silver price per ounce (February 2012 delivery) is at $33.715 per t oz – a $0.188 or 0.56% increase as of 07:08*.
Gold and Silver Forecast
Gold and silver prices started off the week with moderate falls, but currently they are traded up. If the Euro and other currencies will recover from yesterday’s falls and the upcoming reports (from Canada, China, U.S. as listed above) will be positive then the recovery of precious metals prices might continue. In conclusion, I still speculate gold and silver prices will continue their upward trend.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
10:00 – Euro Area Unemployment Rate
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence
2:00– China Manufacturing PMI
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report
2:30 – Australian Trade Balance
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