Gold and Silver – Daily Outlook for October 25th

Following Wednesday’s fall, gold and silver bounced back and increased on Thursday. In the past month both precious metals have changed direction directions several times but still managed to slightly rise on a monthly scale. Yesterday, U.S jobless claims report showed a 12k decrease in initial claims to reach 350k. In the forex market, the USD slightly recovered and rose against leading currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Euro. Will gold and silver change direction again? On today’s agenda: UoM Consumer Sentiment, U.S Core Durable Goods, German Ifo Business Climate Index, Euro Area Monetary Development, and Flash Great Britain GDP Q3 2013.

Here is a short review of precious metals for Friday, October 25th:

Gold and Silver – October Update                             

On Thursday, gold rose by 1.22% to $1,350.1; Silver also increased by 0.90% to $22.79. During October, gold increased by 1.76%; silver, by 5.11%. In the chart below are the normalized prices of bullion for 2013 (normalized to 100 as of September 30th). The prices of gold and silver have rallied during the month.

Gold and silver Chart 2013  October 25

The ratio between the two precious metals slightly rose on Thursday to 59.23. During October, the ratio decreased by 3.19% as silver has slightly out-performed gold.

Gold  to silver ratio Chart 2013  October 25

On Today’s Agenda

German Ifo Business Climate Index: In the previous report regarding September 2013, the business climate index inched up from 107.7 in August to 107.7 in September; if this trend continues, it might positively affect the Euro;

Euro Area Monetary Development: In the latest August report, the annual growth rate for M3 inched up to 2.3%; M1 fell to 6.8%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -2%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to contract and the growth rate of M1 diminishes. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect the ECB rate decisions in the near future;

Flash Great Britain GDP Q3 2013: During the second quarter the GB economy expanded by 0.6% (Q-2-Q); if the growth rate further rises, it could affect the monetary policy of Bank of England and also affect GB pound;

U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly update regarding September may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of August 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $224.9 billion;

UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will come out with its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the recent shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the latest report, the sentiment index decreased to 77.5;

Currencies / Precious Metals Correlations – October Update

On Thursday, the Euro/ USD currency pair slightly increased by 0.18% to 1.3801. During October, the Euro/USD rose by 2.32%. Moreover, other currencies such as the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar also depreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.10% and 0.39%, respectively. The correlations among gold, silver and Japanese yen remained strong during the month, e.g. the correlation between the USD/ Japanese yen and gold price is -0.41 during October. The chart below shows the relations among currencies pairs and precious metals.

Correlation Gold and EURO USD 2013 October 25

Here is a reminder of the main events and publications that are scheduled for today (all times GMT):


09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development

09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q3 2013

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment

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