Gold and silver didn’t do much on a weekly scale as gold inched up while silver slipped. Their unclear trend coincided with the developments in the currencies markets as the Euro rallied against the USD while the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar depreciated during last week. Last week, several U.S reports were published: GDP for the first quarter was slightly revised down to a growth rate of 2.4%; pending home sales rose during April; jobless claims increased by 10k to reach 354k. By the end of the week China’s manufacturing PMI was published, in which the index inched up to 50.8 in May. This news may help rally commodities prices next week. Will precious metals bounce back this week? Here is a short outlook for June 3rd to June 7th; this includes a fundamental analysis of the main reports, decisions and publications that may affect precious metals markets. These include: ECB rate decision, U.S non-farm employment, U.S manufacturing PMI, Australia’s GDP first quarter estimate, RBA rate decision, U.S China and Canada’s trade balance reports, and U.S. jobless claims.
The price of gold slightly rose last week by 0.43%; furthermore, during last week, the average weekly price reached $1,392.18 /t. oz which was 0.77% above last week’s average.
On the other hand, silver price slightly declined during last week by 1.12%; further, the average weekly rate slipped by 0.40% to reach $22.40/t oz compared to last week’s average.
Herein is a short overview that outlines the main reports, speeches and decisions that may affect gold and silver next week between June 3rd and June 7th.
Based on the forthcoming reports, events and current market sentiment, the prices of precious metals might rally at the beginning of the week. But I still guess gold and silver trade down as the week will progress. China’s manufacturing PMI was published on Friday and showed a faster growth rate in the manufacturing sectors. This news may help pull up commodities prices. The rise in gold and silvers’ volatility on account of the rise in the volume of trade may have been driven by the expiry of short term contracts. If the volume of trade will continue to pick up, the volatility might also rise. In the U.S, the upcoming reports will provide some perspective regarding the progress of the U.S economy. These reports include: non-farm payroll, manufacturing PMI, and trade balance. If these reports will show signs of growth, they could help pull up the equities markets and indirectly adversely affect bullion prices. If the upcoming financial reports including: China’s trade balance, Germany’s industrial production Canada’s employment report and Australia’s trade balance won’t show signs of improvement, they could pull down gold and silver. ECB RBA and BOE will decide on their respective cash rate. If RBA or ECB will surprise and cut its cash rate again, this could drag down the Aussie dollar and Euro, respectively, which are strongly linked to bullion prices.
The SPDR gold trust ETF holdings continue to tumble: the ETF’s amount of gold held declined by 5.8% during May and by 25% since the beginning of 2013. If gold holdings will continue to dwindle, they could indicate the demand for gold as an investment continues to fall. The recent fall of the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar during last week may have also partly contributed to the fall of silver prices. If these currencies will continue to depreciate against the USD, they might pull down bullion rates. Finally, the Indian Rupee depreciated again against the USD last week; if this trend will continue; it may adversely affect the demand of gold in India.
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