Gold and silver prices continue to seek direction as both precious metals bounced back yesterday. Their rally coincided with the fall of U.S equity markets. On the other hand, leading currencies including the Euro and Aussie dollar rallied against the USD, which may have contributed to the recent recovery of bullion rates. Today, however, the Asian equity markets tumbled down. Moreover, the Japanese yen sharply rose against the USD. This turn of events may drag along with it bullion rates today. Will gold and silver resume their downward trend today? On today’s agenda: Australia Employment Report, ECB Monthly Bulletin, Italian 10 Year Bond Auction, U.S. Jobless Claims, U.S. Retail Sales and Japan’s monetary policy meeting.
Here is a short outlook for precious metals for Thursday, June 13th:
Precious Metals – June Update
On Wednesday, gold bounced back by 1.09% to $1,392.1; silver also rallied by 0.69% to $21.80. During the month, gold declined by 0.04%; silver, by 1.94%.
In the chart below are the normalized prices of gold and silver in June (normalized to 100 as of May 31st). The prices of gold and silver haven’t done much during the month so far.
The ratio between the two precious metals slightly increased again on Wednesday to 63.87. During June, the ratio increased by 1.95% as gold slightly out-performed silver.
The gold and silver futures volumes of trade have reached on Wednesday to 121 thousand and 49 thousand, respectively. These numbers are lower than the volume traded at the beginning of the week. If the volume will remain low today, this could suggest the odds of sudden movement in the prices of gold and silver due to low volume will dwindle. The chart below presents the volume of trading gold and silver futures in the CME during the month.
On Today’s Agenda
Australia Employment Report: in the recent report regarding April 2013 the rate of unemployment slipped to 5.5%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 50,100 people (see here the recent report);
ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for May analyzes the economic shifts of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU progress;
Italian 10 Year Bond Auction: in the previous bond auction, which was held at the end of May, the average rate reached 4.14%;
U.S. Jobless Claims: in the pervious report the jobless claims fell by 11k to reach 346k; this forthcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
U.S. Retail Sales Report: this report will show the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services for May; in the recent report regarding April, the retail sales inched up by 0.1% from the previous month;
Japan’s monetary policy meeting: Following Japan’s monetary policy meeting, the minutes of this meeting will come out. This news item could offer some insight behind the future moves of BOJ;
Currencies / Bullion Market – June Update
The Euro/ USD slightly rose on Wednesday by 0.19% to 1.338. During the month, the Euro/USD increased by 2.61%. Further, other currencies such as the Aussie dollar and Japanese yen also appreciated yesterday against the U.S dollar by 0.63% and 0.01%, respectively. The correlations among gold, silver, Euro and Aussie dollar strengthened in recent months. If these correlations will hold up, the movement in the forex markets could also affect precious metals rates.
Current Gold and Silver Rates as of June 13th
Gold (short term delivery) is traded at $1,389.20 per t oz. a $2.8 or 0.20% decrease as of 07:26*.
Silver (short term delivery) is at $21.80 per t oz – a 0.01% decrease as of 07:26*.
(* GMT)
Here is a reminder of the major events and publications that are scheduled for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
Today
02:30 – Australia Employment Report
09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin
Tentative – Italian 10 Year Bond Auction
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report
00:50 – Japan’s monetary policy meeting
Tomorrow
10:00 – Euro Area CPI
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment
For further reading:
- Gold and Silver Outlook for June
- Will Gold Recover from its Recent Fall?
- Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for June 10-14
- Gold and Silver Prices Outlook for June 10-14
- Gold and Silver Yearly Outlook For 2013