Gold and silver prices didn’t do much yesterday after they had rallied in the past couple of days. The slow market day has passed and today the situation should be different. The rally in oil prices and U.S stock markets didn’t coincide with the decline in precious metals prices during yesterday’s trading. Currently gold and silver prices are rising. Today, there are several important reports to come out including: U.S jobless claims weekly update (update: U.S jobless claims rose to 380k), Canadian and American Trade Balance and U.S producer price index.
Here is a short outlook on gold and silver prices for Thursday, April 12th:
Gold and Silver– April Update
Gold price edged down on Wednesday by 0.02% to $1,660; silver also decreased by 0.5% to $31.52. During April, gold declined by 0.67% and silver by 2.96%.
The chart below shows the changes in gold and silver prices during the month so far (prices are normalized to March 30th).
The ratio between gold and silver rose again to 52.67. During the month the ratio increased by 2.34% as gold has slightly outperformed silver. In the chart below are the shifts in this ratio during April (up to date).
U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the progress in the PPI during March 2012, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding February this index for finished goods edged up by 0.4% compared with January’s rate and rose by 3.3% in the past 12 months; this news might affect the path of gold and silver prices;
American Trade Balance: This monthly report for February 2012 will present the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities; The American trade balance report for January 2011 the goods and services deficit increased during the month to $52.6 billion.
U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Update: this weekly update will refer to he changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 7th; this upcoming weekly update may affect the strength of the US dollar and consequently may affect bullion prices; last week U.S initial jobless claims continued its downward trend and declined to 357k. If this trend will continue it might have a positive effect on U.S dollar.
Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding January 2012, exports decreased by 2.3%, and imports edged down by 0.6%; as a result, the trade balance shrunk to a surplus of $2.1 billion; this report may affect the trading of the Canadian dollar which tends to be strongly correlated with price of gold;
Forex / Gold & Silver Market – April
The Euro/U.S Dollar bounced back on Wednesday to close the day up by 0.21% to 1.3109; the concerns of another debt crisis in Europe are still there but they don’t seem to pull down the Euro; part of the reason for the strong Euro is the strong German economy that keeps its value against the US dollar; furthermore, the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar also appreciated against the U.S. dollar by 0.46%, and 0.07% respectively. These currencies tend to be linearly linked with the daily changes of gold and silver prices. Thus, if the Euro CAD and Aussie dollar exchange rates will continue their rally today then they may signal gold and silver may also return to rise.
Daily Outlook and Analysis
Gold and silver prices didn’t do much yesterday and they still haven’t recovered from their tumble at the beginning of the month following he publication of the recent FOMC meeting minutes, despite the disappointing U.S labor report . The major currencies aren’t moving much and in no clear direction and this trend also reflect the path of gold and silver prices. Today’s market reports to be published may affect forex markets including the Euro and Canadian dollar and consequently gold and silver prices. These reports especially the U.S PPI and American trade balance may also have a direct effect on bullion prices.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance
Tentative –OPEC Monthly Report
Tentative –IEA monthly oil report
13:30 –U.S.Producer Price Index
13:30 –American Trade Balance
13:30 –U.S.Department of Labor– Jobless Claims Weekly Update
15:30 – EIAU.S.Natural Gas Storage Report
09:30 –Great BritainPPI Input
13:30 –U.S Core Consumer Price Index
14:00 –U.S.TIC Long Term Purchases
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