Gold & Silver Prices Outlook – 13 April

Yesterday, gold prices fell for the second straight day, while silver prices also fell yesterday for the first time since April 1st (no joking…) will these price cuts will continue?


Let’s examine the news and events that might affect current gold and silver prices as of April 13th:

Gold and silver prices April 2011

The April rally of precious metals came to a halt in the last couple of days, mainly for gold.

In the chart below are the changes of gold and silver prices during March and April 2011, normalized to 100=Jan 3rd 2011; the chart shows how silver prices have outperformed gold prices since mid March 2011:


Gold and Silver prices normalized 2011 up to April 13 2011

As of April 12th, Silver price has risen by 6.19%, while gold price increased by 1.73%.

The gold to silver ratio: As of yesterday, April 12th the ratio between gold and silver prices reached to 36.28.

The correlation of gold and silver prices (daily percent changes) has remained well over 60% during 2011, and it is currently at a high level of 0.887:


Correlation of Silver and Gold Prices  Dec 2010- April 13 2011

The yen connection?

Notice that in the chart below of the daily percent change correlations among silver, gold prices and YEN/USD. It shows that there has been an upward trend in since December 2010 in the correlation between USD/YEN and gold and silver prices. Currently, the April correlations are at 0.37 for gold and 0.272 for silver. This might have something to do with the tsunami attack on Japan.

The April correlations however should be marked with an asterisk, because there were only 8 business days during April, so far, and thus the significance of these figures isn’t strong. As the month will progress it will be interesting to check if this relation between USD/YEN and gold and silver prices will remain high.


Correlation Gold & Silver Prices and USD yen currency Dec 2010- April 2011

Update from the Middle East

There isn’t much progress in the war in Libya between the rebels and Gaddafi.

See here for a more detailed update on Libya and its affect on commodities’ markets.


Current Gold and Silver prices

European markets show major precious metals prices are traded at moderate rises:

The current gold price, short term futures (May 2011 delivery) is traded at 1,458.5 USD / t oz. a 4.9$ increase or 0.34%, as of 12.06*.

Current silver price, short term futures is at 40.285 USD / t oz – a 0.219 increase or 0.55%, as of 12.07*.

(* GMT)

The current ratio of gold to silver prices is at 36.2.

Gold and silver prices Outlook and Analysis:


I speculate that gold prices will remained with little change and no clear trend as the week will progress. The same goes for silver prices.

Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):


15.30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories


13.30 – Department of Labor report – US unemployment claims

15.30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage



For further reading (in this site):