Gold and silver continue to dwindle yesterday as gold price edged down while silver price fell again. The announcement of CME to lower the margins on gold by 10% (effective as of May 29th) may help gold price to pick up. The U.S CPI fell by 0.3% mainly due to the decline in energy prices. The core CPI edged by 0.2%; U.S jobless claims rose to 386k. Currently gold and silver are increasing. On today’s agenda: U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases, UoM Consumer Sentiment and ECB President Draghi will give a speech. Here is a short analysis for gold and silver for Friday, June 15th:
Precious Metals –June Update
Gold price edged up on Thursday by 0.01% to $1,619; silver on the other hand declined by 1.85% to $28.41. During the month gold rose by 3.54% and silver by 2.34%.
The chart below presents the normalized rates of these precious metals during the month (normalized to 100 as of May 31st).
The ratio between the two metals sharply increased on Thursday to 57.01. During the month the ratio rose by 1.17 as silver has slightly under-performed gold.
U.S CPI Declined in May
The U.S consumer price index declined by .3% during May; on the other hand the core CPI rose by 0.20%. This news may indicate the economic activity in the U.S is still doing well.
U.S. Jobless claims Rose Last Week
Yesterday, June 14th, the U.S. jobless claims weekly update was published for the week ending on June 9th; according to the report, the number of initial claims rose by 6k to 386,000 claims (seasonally adjusted data), which is higher than the revised figure of 380k claims from last week; the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.6% for the week ending on June 2nd;
On Today’s Agenda
ECB President Draghi Speaks: Following the ECB rate decision in which the rate remained flat at 1% the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will speak; his speech may include the recent events in Europe including the recent bailout Spain requires from the EU for its major banks;
U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in April 2012. In the previous report regarding March 2012, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached $36.2 billion;
UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University ofMichigan will issue its preliminary consumer sentiment survey; this report could offer some insight about the changes in U.S consumers sentiment about the economy; last time the sentiment index rose to 77.8;
Currencies / Gold & Silver Market – June Update
The Euro/US Dollar increased on Thursday by 0.61% to 1.2633. During the month (UTD) the Euro/U.S Dollar increased by 2.16%. Furthermore, other exchange rates such as the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar also appreciated during Thursday against the USD by 0.91% and 0.75%, respectively. If the U.S dollar will continue to depreciate against these currencies, it may help rally bullion rates. Currently the Euro is decreasing against the USD.
Current Gold and Silver Rates as of June 15th
Gold (July 2012 delivery) is traded at $1,627.0 per t oz. a $7.4 or 0.46% increase as of 08:12*.
Silver (July 2012 delivery) is at $28.725 per t oz – a $0.318 or 1.12% increase as of 08:10*.
(* GMT)
Daily Outlook for June 15th
Gold and silver slightly rose on a weekly scale, but not by a large margin. This trend may continue today. If the Euro/USD will trade up it could help bullion rates.
The upcoming U.S reports including TIC long term purchases, and consumer confidence might affect the US dollar and consequently gold and silver. If ECB president will refer to the recent developments in EU and address to ECB’s policy it could stir up the markets. The upcoming elections in Greece over the weekend will likely to raise the speculation about the future of Greece in the EU.
Here is a reminder of the top events and publications that are scheduled for today (all times GMT):
Today
07:50 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
14:00 –U.S.TIC Long Term Purchases
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)
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