Gold and silver prices continue to shift with no clear direction as they slightly inclined yesterday, after they had moderately fell a day earlier. The European debt crisis continues to influence traders, resulting in the indeterminate direction of precious metal prices in the last few days. Currently gold and silver prices are traded slightly down. Today there are many items on the agenda including Euro Area CPI, American CPI and U.S. Long Term Treasuries Purchases Report.
Here is a market outlook of precious metals prices for today, November 16th:
Gold and Silver Prices – November
Gold price slightly rose on Tuesday by 0.21% to $1,782.2; silver price also inclined by 1.27% to $34.46. In the chart below are the changes in gold and silver prices during the month (normalized gold and silver prices to October 31st 2011). During November, gold price rose by 3.3%, while silver price slightly inclined by 0.3%.
The ratio between gold and silver prices slightly slipped on Tuesday, November 15th to 51.72. During November, gold price rose by a higher rate than silver price so that the ratio rose by 3.0%.
The standard deviation of the daily percent changes of gold price and silver price during November slipped compared with the standard deviation in October and September; this might indicate a drop in the volatility of precious metal prices.
On Today’s Agenda
Euro Area CPI and Core Monthly Inflation: Following the recent interest rate cut done by the ECB, there are those who may consider there will be an increase in the inflation pressures in the months to come. In last flash report regarding October 2011, the annual inflation rate was 3.0%;
U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital report will present the main changes in the purchases and sales of U.S long term treasuries in September 2011. In the previous report regarding August, the net foreign holdings in U.S Treasuries longer-term notes fell by $8.7 billion. If the report will be positive and show a rise in net foreign holdings this may indicate a growing demand for U.S. LT securities;
Forex Trading / Gold & Silver Prices – November
The Euro to U.S Dollar exchange rate moderately declined on Tuesday by 0.69% to reach 1.354. The news from Europe will probably continue affecting the forex exchange rate markets and consequently may also affect the fluctuations in gold and silver prices.
S&P500 / Gold & Silver Prices – November
The S&P500 index rose on Tuesday by 0.48% to reach 1,257.81; during November the S&P500 index slightly rose by 0.36%. During November, the correlations among the S&P500 index and gold and silver prices were strong and positive; this finding might suggest that the direction of the stock market is linked to the trend of gold and silver prices. Thus, if the stock market will continue to rally, it may also indicate that gold and silver prices are likely to rise as well.
U.S. Treasuries / Gold & Silver Prices – November
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slightly rose on Tuesday by 0.02 percent points to 2.06%; during November the 10 year treasury yield dropped by 0.11 percent point. During November there were positive correlations among the U.S. 10 year notes yields and gold and silver prices. If the long term U.S. treasury yields will continue to rise, it may pressure gold and silver prices to increase.
Current Gold and Silver Prices Per Ounce
The precious metals prices are currently traded slightly down in the European markets:
Current gold price per ounce short term future (December 2011 delivery) is traded at $1,775.0 per t oz. a $7.2 or 0.40% decrease as of 09:00*.
Current silver price per ounce short term future (December 2011 delivery) is at $34.415 per t oz – a $0.041 or 0.12% decline as of 09:00*.
The current ratio of gold to silver prices per ounce is at 51.57.
Gold and Silver Prices Outlook:
Gold and silver prices continue to zigzag with no clear trend in the past several days. The speculation around the debt crisis in Europe may continue affecting not only the Euro but also gold and silver prices; on the other hand the reports to be published today from the U.S. such as the U.S. CPI may affect the forex markets: if the reports will show , they may appriciate the U.S dollar rally the stock markets and consequently may also influence precious metals prices to rise.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):
10:00 – Euro Area CPI
13:30 –U.S CPI
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases
15:30 – EIA Report on Crude Oil Stockpiles
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits
13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
15:30 – EIA report on U.S. Natural Gas Market
For further reading:
Monthly Analysis and Outlook: