Gold & Silver Prices Outlook – 19 April

Gold and silver prices continued to rise as they have started off the week with moderate rises.


Let’s examine the news and events that might affect current gold and silver prices as of April 19th:

World’s leading producers of silver


In 2009 the top exporters of silver to the US were Mexico, Canada and Peru. According to Mineral commodity summaries 2010, Peru was the top leading producer of silver in 2009 with over 3,900 tons, followed by China with 3,000 tons and Mexico with 2,500 tons. Therefore, the changes that occur in these countries could have an effect on the supply of silver.

Gold and silver prices April 2011

The uprising of gold and silver continued last week and as of yesterday April 18th, silver price has risen by 13.8%, while gold price increased by 4.5%. As a comparison, during March 2011 silver price gained 10.1% and gold price only 0.6%.

In the graph below are the daily changes of gold and silver prices during April 2011, in which their prices are normalized to 100=April 1st 2011; the chart shows how silver prices have outperformed gold prices:


Gold and Silver prices normalized 2011 up to April 19 2011

Despite that silver price has been outperforming gold price; these prices are still highly correlated as their daily percent changes have a 0.892 positive linear correlation during April (up to April 18th).


Correlation of Silver and Gold Prices  Dec 2010- April 19  2011

The gold to silver ratio: As of yesterday, April 18th the ratio between gold and silver prices kept on falling and reached a new low of 34.75.

The ratio could be interpreted as one troy ounce (31.1 gram) of gold is worth 34.75 troy ounces of silver.

Update from Middle East

The recent news from Middle East is that in the recent Nigerian elections, Jonathan won and was re-elected as Nigeria’s president. There are some reports of violent protests against his reelection.

See here for a more detailed update on Middle East and its effect on commodities’ markets.


Current Gold and Silver prices

European markets show major precious metals prices are traded moderate rises:

The current gold price, short term futures (May 2011 delivery) is traded at 1,495.5 USD / t oz. a 2.6$ increase or 0.17%, as of 11.06*.

Current silver price, short term futures is at 43.225 USD / t oz – a 0.269 increase or 0.63%, as of 11.07*.

(* GMT)

The current ratio of gold to silver prices is at 34.6.

Gold and silver prices Outlook and Analysis:


I think we will probably continue to see moderate rises in gold prices, as the ongoing upward trend will continue, even if there might be some falls along the way during the week; for silver prices this upward trend will continue even more so.


Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today and tomorrow (all times GMT):


13.00 – Canadian Core CPI


9.30 Bank of England MPC meeting

15.30 – EIA report about Crude oil inventories



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