Good, Bad And Ugly NFP, Catalan Crisis Update — MM #160

The messy jobs report provides another mystery, in addition to the absence of inflation. We begin with run-down of the NFP and the implications for the Fed, continue with the Catalan crisis and preview the upcoming events.

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  1. NFP analysis: The hurricanes totally distorted the jobs report. A rare drop in the number of positions was recorded but wages are higher. The markets see the glass half full and the chances for a rate hike are higher now. What matters for the Fed? What are the next data points to watch out for? We discuss.
  2. Catalonia crisis: An issue that was a non-event turned into a full-blown ongoing crisis. We analyze the recent events as another climax awaits us. The Catalan government may, or may not, declare independence. How will stocks, bonds, and the euro react? So far, the reactions were quite different between the various asset classes.
  3. Preview: We talked about inflation and now we will get the fresh data for September. In addition, watch out for retail sales and also the Fed minutes.

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