Financial Market Preview for June 29- July 3

It was supposed to be short week that will focus on the latest non-farm payroll report, alas the Greeks will take center stage again as they will have a referendum on the proposed bailout plan set on July 5th. Athens plead for an extension on the upcoming 1.6 billion euros payment it has to deliver to the IMF at the end of this month, but this request fell on deaf ears and was rejected. Moreover, the EU members aren’t too happy with Tsipras and his decision to take the bailout plan to the people. So now the possibility of a Grexit is higher than it was just a week back because now it’s very likely that Greece will default on its IMF upcoming payment. ECB is expected to react to this possibility as it plans to stop the emergency lending to Greek banks. But some analysts suspect the ECB will only cap the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) and won’t end it. And in any case Greek banks are still able to get funding from the Greek central bank, albeit its resources may not be able to accommodate a bank run. In any case, this short week could turn out to be more volatile than previously expected. Besides Greece and the NFP report, other reports to consider include: Pending home sales, EU CPI flash estimate, Australia’s trade balance reports, U.S. factory orders, U.S. manufacturing PMI, China manufacturing PMI final estimate, EU retail sales, and Canada’s GDP. So let’s review the agenda for June 29th to July 3rd:

(All times GMT):

Monday, June 29th

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during May; in the previous update for April, pending home sales index rose by 3.4% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;

09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. According to the last report, the deficit shrank to 25.3 billion pounds;

09:30 – Final GB GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the last update of GB’s first quarter of 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate GB’s GDP grew by 0.6%. Currently, the market expectations are for the GDP to reach a growth rate of 0.4%;

Tuesday, June 30th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for May 2015, retail sales increased by 1.7%;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to rise to 93.7;

09:40 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, in London;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for May, the annual CPI was 0.3%. The core CPI rose to 0.9%. This is still below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are that the inflation reached 0.2% last month, and the core CPI will inch down to 0.8%;

10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment dropped to 11.1%; this time the estimates put this figure again at 11.1%;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for April 2015. In the last update regarding March 2015, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.2%; the current expectations are for the GDP to edge up by 0.1%;

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for May, the consumer confidence index rose to 95.4. The current estimates are for a gain as the index will reach 97.1;

Wednesday, July 1st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slightly faster pace. Current estimates are at 50.3 — China’s manufacturing conditions are growing a bit faster;

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC) : HSBC will release its final estimate for last month’s manufacturing PMI – last time it reached 49.2 and now is expected to slightly rise to 49.6. In either case the manufacturing sectors aren’t growing according to this report. Of the two reports, this one is considered independent and could be more accurate than the former;

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in May, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 52 – market expectations are that in June the PMI edged up to 52.6;

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for June 2015 that will be published on Friday;

15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to June 2015. Back in May, the index rose to 52.8; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster pace than before; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to slightly increase again to 53.2;

15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 26th;

Thursday, July 2nd

01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the last report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services rose again to 3.89 billion dollars; the monthly update will also show the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);

12:30 –ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting;

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report regarding May 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 280K – higher than market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate edged up to 5.5%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 231K), this could boost further the USD and drag down precious metals prices;

13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 26th; in the previous report, the jobless claims slightly rose to 271K;

15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report presents the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in June; in the latest report regarding May factory orders slipped by 0.4%; current projections are for a reported another fall of 0.5% in June;

15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of June 26th;

Friday, July 3rd

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the previous report, the volume of retail trade remained unchanged;

10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to May 2015. In the last update, the volume of retail trade increased by 0.7%;

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