Natural gas prices outlook for June 2011

The natural gas market in the U.S. continued its rally during May with registered rises for Henry Hub prices during the second half of the month. Let’s examine the changes in the natural gas during May 2011 and provide a natural gas prices forecast for June 2011:

Natural gas prices May 2011- analysis

Let’s first examine how did natural gas prices (Henry Hub) change during May: as presented below, the Henry Hub  spot and future prices demonstrated at the first half of May a downward trend, which was common among most major commodities during that time (including gold, silver and crude oil); during April 29th up to May 20th, the  natural gas spot and future (short term June delivery) fell by 10.2% and 9.96%, respectively.


Natural gas spot price future (Henry Hub) May 2011 June 6

Nonetheless, since May 20th up to the end of the month, the Henry Hub made a comeback and rose sharply up to $4.63/mmbtu for spot and $4.666/mmbtu for future (short term); during that time the spot grew by 14.32% while the future (short term) rose by 10.31%. The table below summarizes these findings:

table percent change Natural gas spot price future (Henry Hub)  May 2011 June 6 By the end of the month, natural gas spot price increased by 2.66% compared with the end of April, while Henry Hub future price fell by 0.68%.

The table below shows the average natural gas spot , future of Henry Hub (June delivery) and New York City Gate Spot . During May, the average Henry Hub spot rose by 1.8% compared with April’s average price. Future prices of Henry Hub (June delivery) also rose by 1.5%.


Change in natural gas prices Henry Hub, and New York City Gate spot October 2010- MAY 2011

Thus, due to the fall and rise of natural gas prices in the U.S., they haven’t increased much during May compared with April in terms of averages and trend.

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