Natural Gas Prices Outlook for November 2011

The natural gas prices recorded a very turbulent month with sharp shifts in the Henry Hub natural gas price’s direction. But by the end of the month, as expected, natural gas spot price slipped in October. On the other hand, the natural gas future price (short term November delivery) changed direction on the penultimate trading day of October and sharply inclined to the highest level since mid September.

What is up ahead for U.S. natural gas prices in November?  Let’s examine the changes in the natural gas prices during October 2011 and provide an outlook for natural gas prices for November 2011:

 Natural Gas Prices November 2011- Analysis

Let’s first check what occurred to natural gas prices (Henry Hub) in November: the Henry Hub natural gas spot and future prices started the month with no clear path as they have shifted from falls to rises very rapidly. The Henry Hub natural gas prices started to pick up and rose during the second part of the month as the temperatures throughout the U.S. mainly in the East coast started to fall and the demand for natural gas for residential purposes picked up.

By the end of the month, the Henry Hub spot price slightly declined by 0.54% and the future price sharply inclined by 7.20%.

Natural gas spot price future (Henry Hub) October November  4

Let’s divide October into two parts as in the table below: from 30/9 to 13/10 and from 13/10 to 31/10; during the first part of October, the Henry Hub spot price sharply declined, while the future price (November delivery) moderately declined; during the second part of the month, the Henry Hub spot and future prices sharply rose by 7.02% and 11.02%, respectively. The table below summarizes these findings:

table percent change Natural gas spot price future (Henry Hub) October 2011 November 4

The next table presents the average natural gas spot price, future price of Henry Hub (November delivery) and New York City Gate Spot price. During October, the average Henry Hub spot price fell by 8.6% compared with September’s average price. Future prices of Henry Hub (November delivery) also declined by 5.9%.

See here the October natural gas report for free.

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