No More Dovish Draghi and Diagnosing the Donald — MM #142

As we turn the page to May there’s a lot on our plate: Draghi’s impact on the euro, Macron’s lead in France and the Donald’s first 100 days. Markets care about three things, and the wishes are not really being fulfilled. We finish off with a preview of the next week, focusing on the Fed.

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  1. Draghi show: The ECB managed to keep things balanced in his press conference, showing optimism about growth but caution about inflation. But then the data struck, and prices are on the rise as well. Where are prices rising? It’s not oil this time, but actually another critical component.
  2. French elections Part I: Emmanuel Macron seems to be on his way to the French presidency but is it too early to celebrate. Pollsters can certainly celebrate their victory in calling the results almost perfectly.
  3. Trump’s first 100 days: We join the choir with analyzing Trump’s first 100 days in terms of markets. They care about infrastructure, taxes and trade. In the run-up to the 100-day benchmark, we had some efforts on achieve something on the latter two. The dollar already looks disillusioned but not down as stocks as sanguine. Can this last?
  4. Preview: The month of May starts with a bang: a full buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, a Fed decision and yet another round fo the French elections.

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