According to the recent petroleum and oil weekly report published by the Energy Information Administration, there is an analysis on the impact of oil production on imports – as production of light sweet crude rises, imports tend to fall. During last week there was a fall in the U.S stockpiles: the total U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles decline by 2.66 million bl; further, crude oil stockpiles also decreased by 2.44 million bl. There was a decline in refinery inputs and imports but a rise in production. Finally, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the U.S declined during last week. Currently, the price of oil is rising perhaps as a correction to the sharp fall in oil prices in recent days.
Here is a weekly update for the week ending on September 21st 2012 of the U.S oil and petroleum market:
Crude Oil Stockpiles
For the week ending on September 21st, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles declined by 2.6 million barrels and reached 1,798.8 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are higher than the quota as of last year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 23.67 million barrels above oil stockpiles levels of the parallel week during 2011.
U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil also decreased by 2.4 million barrels and reached 1,060.1 million barrels.
The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline also decreased by 0.25% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 195.8 million barrels.
The chart below shows the changes of petroleum and oil stockpiles and WTI crude oil price between 2008 and 2012. During the last couple of years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles was -0.186. This relation suggests, assuming all things equal, that oil prices may rally during next week.
Petroleum production refinery inputs and imports (for the week of September 21st)
During last week, imports and refinery inputs decreased while production rose.
The four week average of U.S. production (million of barrels a day) for the week of September 21st increased to 5.95; it is also 7.1% above the average production at the same week in 2011;
Crude oil imports fell to 8.511 (for 4 week average) compared with the week of 14/9/2012; they were 3.1% above the average during the same week last year.
The crude oil refinery inputs (4 week average) also declined to 14.617 (million b/d), a 0.9% fall compared with the week of 14/9/2012, and were also 4.1% lower than the same week last year.
Below is a detailed review of the information listed above (for the week of September 21st):
Propane stocks increased by 273 thousand barrels and reached 74,290 thousand barrels.
Crude Oil, Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the Week Ending on September 21st
The average U.S gasoline retail price decreased by 5 cent to $3.83 /g, which is still $0.30/g higher than the price during the same week in 2011.
The national average Diesel price also declined by 5 cents as it reached $4.09/g; this price is also $0.3/g higher than last year’s average price at same time.
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