Crude oil prices rose again yesterday, but they are currently traded with moderate changes. Today the US unemployment claims report will be published along with the monetary development of European Union.
Here’s a short analysis and outlook of the crude oil market for today, June 30th:
Crude oil prices – June 2011
On Wednesday, June 29th crude oil price (WTI) rose again by 2.02% to $92.89/b; during June (UTD) WTI spot oil shed nearly 7.72% of its value.
Brent oil price, also inclined by 3.41% to $112.40/b; during June Brent oil declined by 4.08%.
Premium of Brent oil over WTI spot oil
The premium of Brent oil over WTI spot oil picked up again and rose on Wednesday June 29th to $17.63/b; this gap rose by 21.75% during June.
Following the spike in the premium of Brent oil over WTI on June 13th in which it reached $23.29/b, this premium fell again.
Petroleum stocks in the US
According to the recent US Energy Information Administration weekly report on U.S. petroleum market, the U.S. crude oil stocks fell very moderately declined last week by 323 thousand barrels, or by 0.02%. For the week ending on June 24th crude oil stocks reached 1,791.6 million barrels. The report also showed a decrease in oil production, imports and an increase in refinery input (See here the recent petroleum report).
US pending home sales
Yesterday, the US home sales report showed an increase in the US pending home sales during May 2011; this news is usually considered to have a positive effect on crude oil prices: according to a research done by Roache et. al (2008): a working paper published by IMF that examines the effects of such news on commodities prices including crude oil prices; the rise in the US home sales index might have affected the major commodities prices including crude oil prices as they have inclined yesterday and they are currently traded up.
Current crude oil prices
Major crude oil prices are currently traded up at the American markets:
The Nymex crude oil price, short term futures (July 2011 delivery) is traded at $95.20 / barrel, a $0.43/b increase or 0.45%, as of 15:55*.
The Dated Brent spot oil price inclines by $0.52/b to $112.92 / barrel as of 15:05*.
Thus, the current premium of Brent over WTI is at $17.72/b.
Crude Oil price outlook and analysis:
Following yesterday’s vote in the Greek parliament, the excitement in the financial market has slowed down and the major commodities are demonstrating moderate changes; as we are entering the long weekend its likely the news cycle will slow down and so will the changes in crude oil prices.
Here is a reminder of the top events and reports that are planed for today (all times GMT):
8:00 – ECB conference Trichet speaks
09.00 – Monetary developments in the euro area
13:30 – Canada GDP by industry
13:30 – Department of Labor report – U.S. unemployment claims
15:30 – EIA report about Natural gas storage
For further reading: