Oil Prices Rise As Stockpiles Decline – Review for November 21

The prices of crude oil rose during the day but shifted with an unclear trend during the week as the tensions in the Middle East may have contributed to the volatility in the oil market. The recent EIA report presents another drop in oil stockpiles in the U.S during the previous week. The petroleum and oil weekly report prepared by Energy Information Administration presents an analysis of the tight distillate fuel market mainly in the Northeast due to Hurricane Sandy, the drop in supplies and backwardation in the heating oil market. This situation, however, is likely to ease in the weeks to follow. During the previous week, U.S stockpiles declined: the total U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles fell by 6.2 million bl; moreover, crude oil stockpiles fell by 1.4 million bl. The oil production and refinery input increased last week while imports fell.

Here is a weekly report for the week ending on November 16th 2012 of the U.S oil and petroleum market:

Crude Oil Stockpiles

For the week ending on November 16th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles fell by 6.2 million barrels and reached 1,782.9 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are still higher than the quota as of last year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 50.2 million barrels above oil stockpiles levels of the same week in 2011.


U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil also declined by 1.46 million barrels and reached 1,069.4 million barrels.

The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline also fell by 0.77% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 200.39 million barrels.

In the chart below are the developments of petroleum and oil stockpiles and price of oil in recent years. During the last few years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles was -0.185. This mid-weak correlation suggests, assuming all things equal, oil prices may further rally during next week.

u.s. ending stocks oil  2012 november 21

Petroleum production refinery inputs and imports (for the week of November 16th)

During last week, imports fell while refinery inputs and production rose.

The four week average of U.S. production (million of barrels a day) for the week of November 16th rose to 6.691; it is also 0.4% above the average production at the same week in 2011.

The crude oil refinery inputs (4 week average) edged up to 14.755 (million b/d), a 0.1% gain compared with the week of 9/11/2012; inputs were also 0.9% higher than the same week last year.

Crude oil imports decreased to 7.893 (for 4 week average) compared with the week of 9/11/2012; they were also 8.4% below the average during the same week last year.

Below is a detailed review of the information listed above (for the week of November 16th):

Production and Imports Oil Refinery Inputs 2012 November 21

Propane Stocks

Propane stocks declined by 517 thousand barrels and reached 72,666 thousand barrels.

Crude Oil, Gasoline and Diesel Prices for the Week Ending on November 16th

The average price of U.S gasoline retail decreased again by 2 cents to $3.43/g, which is $0.06/g higher than the price during the same week in 2011.

The national average Diesel price slipped by one penny as it reached $3.98/g; this price is $0.03/g lower than last year’s average price at same time.

A detailed analysis of oil prices for the week ending on November 16th is herein.

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