Oil prices rise due to Egypt riots – Weekly recap January 24-28

Crude oil price continued to fall all through the last week, up to the weekend, in which the riots in Egypt started to escalate. This news caused crude oil price to rise sharply.

Here is a weekly recap for January 24-28 on the main changes in crude oil price, recapping the highlights on petroleum stocks, production and consumption in the US, and the main news regarding the Egyptian riots and its effect on crude oil price:

Crude oil price

table crude oil price - 24-28 January* This figure is calculated based on the percent change from the price at the beginning of the week compare to the price at the end of the week

The current news from Egypt show that the riots subsided for now as curfew was issued by President Hosni Mubarak, while he fled from Cairo to his home in Sharm el-Sheikh in Sinai. As the level of uncertainty in the Middle East rises, it could continue to raise main energy prices including crude oil price; See here the complete story on the Egyptian riots and its effect on crude oil price.

Let’s check how crude oil prices did this week:

Crude oil price (WTI spot) weekly average of 86.83$/b fell by 3.3% compare to last week’s average price of 89.75$/b. On average, crude oil price (WTI) daily change was 0.29%, and its price inclined by 3% from beginning to end of the week.

The WTI crude oil price ranged between 89.34 $/b and 85.08 $/b – a range of 4.26$/b, which is higher than last week’s range.

These figures show crude oil prices falling for most of the week and only on Friday changed direction due to the news from the Middle East.

NYMEX Futures Price (future for February) much like WTI spot price, rose by 1.67% from beginning to end of the week as it settled on 89.34$/ on Friday – this week’s high.

Europe Brent spot price also inclined by 1.85% from beginning to end of the week, while its average weekly price was 97.25$/b which is 0.1% below last week’s average.

The gap between the Brent and WTI spot prices was on Friday 9.21$/b – the lowest gap all week. This news on Egypt might have a stronger effect on WTI oil than Brent oil. As the upcoming week will progress, we will see if there is a trend in closing the gap between the two spot prices.

Crude oil charts

The following charts show the changes of WTI spot price, NYMEX Futures Prices (future for February) and Europe Brent spot price:

Crude oil charts - 24-28  of January

The chart above shows that while Brent price has no apparent trend (upward or downward) the WTI spot and future prices show a clear downward trend from the middle of the week.

The final graph shows crude oil price (WTI spot, WTI future, Brent spot) daily percent change ranging between 4.3 percent incline for WTI spot and future prices on Friday, and a 1.94 percent decline on Thursday for the same commodities’ prices.

Crude oil charts - percent change 24-28 January

Petroleum Stocks –highlights:

In my recent review on last week’s EIA report petroleum stocks, consumption and production in the US, showed that oil stocks have increased for the third straight week by 0.1%, an increase of nearly 2.3 million barrels of crude oil.

The average US production (million of barrels a day) was 5.425 on a four week average, lower than last week by 1.1%, and also lower by 0.6% compare to the production for the same time last year;

For the complete petroleum stocks, consumption and production review see here.

For further reading (in this site):