Oil Prices – Weekly Recap January 28 – February 1

Crude oil price sharply increased during last week. The U.S stockpiles rose according to the latest EIA report. The difference between Brent and WTI has widened to a range between $17 and $18 during last week. Brent rose by 3.07% during the week; WTI oil, by 1.97%. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI reached $18.99/b on Friday.

Here is a short analysis for the rate shifts in oil prices (Brent and WTI) between January 28th and February 1st and a summary of the recent EIA review on petroleum and oil stockpiles:

Oil Market – Weekly Summary

table oil prices - January 28 - February 1   2013NYMEX Oil Future (WTI) rose again during last week by 1.97%; its weekly average rate also increased by 1.75% to $97.44 per barrel, compared with last week’s $95.77 per barrel. The average daily percent change of oil price (WTI) was 0.39%.

NYMEX Oil Future (short term delivery) reached $97.77/b by Friday, February 1st.

Europe Brent oil also increased during the week by 3.07%, and the average price rose by 2.25% compared with last week’s average.

The difference between Brent and WTI was at the range between $16 and $18 during the week; its average premium reached $17.57; it finished the week at $18.99.

Oil Charts

In the following charts (for the week ending on February 1st) are the daily changes in NYMEX WTI future (short term delivery) and Brent oil:

The first chart shows the shifts of WTI and Brent oil during last week: WTI oil and Brent oil had an upward trend during the week.

oil WTI BRENT chart - January 28 - February 1   2013In the second chart are the daily percent changes (i.e. changes around the trend) of oil prices (WTI and Brent):


oil chart WTI Brent - percent change January 28 - February 1  2013Oil Stockpiles –Review:

For the week ending on January 25th, U.S. Petroleum and crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.2 million barrels and reached 1,798.7 million barrels. The current oil stockpiles are also higher than the quota from year: the current crude oil stockpiles are 46.9 million barrels above oil stockpiles for the parallel week in 2012.

U.S. Ending Stocks of crude oil also increased by 6.1 million barrels and reached 1,064.5 million barrels. The U.S. Ending Stocks of Total Gasoline fell by 0.41% compared with last week’s stocks; it reached 232.3 million barrels.

During recent years the lagged linear correlation between WTI oil price and current oil stockpiles reached -0.201. This mid-weak correlation suggests, assuming all things being equal, the prices of oil may decline next week.

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